A new survey by the National Consulting Center (CNC) for the magazine Semana shows that the leftist Gustavo Petro would win in the second presidential round in Colombia with 44.9% of the votes, compared to 41% for the populist Rodolfo Hernandez.
The survey, which consulted 2,172 citizens in person in 50 municipalities in the country between May 31 and June 2, 2022, reveals that 9.4% of those surveyed have not defined their vote (Does not know-does not answer), while 3% would vote blank. 1.7% said they would not vote for any of the candidates.
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The sample margin of error is 2.1%.
Another previous CNC survey, this one for the CM& newscast, showed a technical tie, but placed Hernández in a 41% vote intention already Petro with 39%. This sample consulted 1,200 people by telephone.
In addition, a survey type tracking, of the FM, put to Hernández with an intention to vote of 50.4%, above Gustavo Petrowith 45.6%.
For its part, a measurement by the pollster GAD3 for RCN, located Rodolfo Hernandez with 52.3% in the intention to vote already Gustavo Petro con 45,1 %.
Survey fact sheet
NATURAL OR LEGAL PERSON WHO CARRIED OUT IT: National SAP Consulting Center NATURAL OR LEGAL PERSON WHO RECOMMENDED IT: Semana MagazineFUNDING SOURCE: Semana MagazineUNIVERSE UNDER STUDY: Women and men over 18 years of age, residing in the municipalities of Colombia and intending to vote in the next presidential elections. As a statistical stratification mechanism, 6 geographic regions were established as follows: (1) Antioquia + Coffee Region: Antioquia, Caldas, Quindío and Risaralda; (2) Bogota: Bogota DC; (3) Caribbean: Atlantic, Bolívar, Cesar, Córdoba, La Guajira, Magdalena, Sucre, San Andrés and Providencia; (4) Central East: Boyacá, Cundinamarca, Norte de Santander, Santander, Arauca and Casanare; (5) Central South: Huila, Tolima, Meta, Caquetá and Putumayo and (6) Pacific: Cauca, Chocó, Nariño and Valle del Cauca.
SAMPLING DESIGN: The sampling design is probabilistic, in four stages and stratified with the selection of simple random samples of statistical units in each stage.
SAMPLE SIZE: 2,172 cases in 50 municipalities from all regions of Colombia, namely: Antioquia + Coffee Region: Medellín, Bello, Rionegro, Jardín, Segovia, Manizales, Pácora, Viterbo, Armenia, La Tebaida; Bogota: Bogota DC; Caribbean: Barranquilla, Manatí, Soledad, Cartagena, Agustín Codazzi, Montería, Chinú, Barrancas, El Banco, Sincelejo, Sampués; Central East: Tunja, Chiquinquirá, Tauramena, Madrid, Soacha, La Palma, Tabio, Cúcuta, Ocaña, Bucaramanga, Floridablanca, Lebrija; Centrosur: Florencia, Neiva, Pitalito, Acacias, Puerto Gaitán, Ibagué, Melgar, Natagaima; Pacific: Popayán, Santander de Quilichao, Miranda, Pasto, Cali, Palmira, Guacarí, Bolívar.
MARGIN OF ERROR AND CONFIDENCE LEVEL: Sampling error margin of 2.1% and 95% confidence.