while directionThai inflationIn Feb 2023, it is expected to be ‘lower’ than the 5% level under hypothesis.oil priceat the current level And there is a view that inflation will continue to decline until the end of this year when inflation is expected to be in the range of 2-3%.
However, in the future, it is still considered ‘Pressure factors’ inflation can move up. Especially in the second half of the year ‘Mr. Kan Hathaisat’ investment strategist Kasikorn Securities revealed that actionopen countrylike a double-edged sword Although positive from the arrival of foreign tourists which Kasikorn Securities The number of foreign tourists is expected to reach 27.4 million in 2023 and the Thai GDP will grow 3.7% from the previous year, but the improving economy will come with a factor in the price of goods and services. Especially from the higher service side as well, including wages, higher wages causing the risk of Thai inflation will be in the second half of this year
However, following the fundamental factors are over, it is believed thatThai inflationThere is a chance to stabilize at a high level of 2.5-3% compared to the same period last year. This is in line with the Bank of Thailand’s (BOT) stance on inflation concerns in the second half of this year. Therefore, Thai inflation numbers in January came out lower than expected and in February. There is a downward trend. Kasikorn Securities expects that the impact on the Thai stock market is quite limited.
Therefore, it is recommended to investshare 2 groups: 1. Banks such as TTB, KTB that benefit from rising interest rates, including BLA from higher bond yields as well, and 2. Stocks with high-income target customers, resistant to Adjusting product prices and benefiting from opening countries like CPN, CRC, BDMS, MINT .SC, AAI
‘Mr. Kitpon Pornpaisalkit’ Assistant Managing Director of UOB Kay Hian Securities (Thailand) said that Thailand’s inflation risk is in the second half of this year. The influence on energy prices has decreased in the first half of this year. Including if the Chinese economy can return to open the country quickly The more energy prices move up as well.
In addition, many countries’ economies, if they do not fall into a recession in the second half of the year, will affect overall investment, causing foreign investment (fund flow) to flow into the Thai stock market less than last year or slower than expected. Investments will be spread out, such as China, Europe or others, not heading straight to Thailand like last year. The Thai stock market is a safe haven, so must follow up in the middle of the year to be able to push Thai inflation down to a low level of 2-3%. or not
Recommend stock investment strategies Still a stock that benefits the opening of the city Switching from tourism to retail consumption, such as MAKRO, BJC, CPALL, if Thai inflation remains at a high level but slows down from the previous year. less chance of a policy interest rate hike People have more money to spend. and Chinese tourists returning to consume in Thailand Including movie theater stocks such as MAJOR, opening the city helps the business recover significantly.
‘Mr. Nattaphon Khamthakrua’ Director of Investment Analysis Department Yuanta Securities(Thailand) said that the only factor that might cause inflation in the second half of the year to rise If there are additional adjustmentselectricity bill (FT) does not stop because the electricity cost is still rising for a long time, the operator will not be able to bear the cost burden until they have to push the burden on the product price. But believe that Thai inflation has passed the highest level and this year has slowed down, reducing the heat level by the end of this year to 2-3%.
It is seen as a supporting factor for the psychology of investing in stocks during this period. directly to domestic play stocks such as retail, finance, food, beverages, communications and REITs
