Guosen Futures Daily Review: Zinc and Nickel Continue to Shock, Apple Goes Higher, Snail Futures Fall
Zinc and nickel: Long and short factors are intertwined, and zinc and nickel continue to oscillate;
On Monday, the main Shanghai zinc contract fell 0.02% from the previous trading day. On the supply side, the domestic zinc concentrate processing fee has risen, and the profit window of imported zinc concentrate has continued to open. The domestic zinc supply may rise in October. In overseas countries, as the temperature drops and energy demand increases, the energy crisis may worsen, and there is the possibility of further reductions in zinc smelters. On the demand side, in terms of primary consumption, the operating rate of galvanizing has risen sharply following the festival; on the terminal side, the epidemic situation has spread to many points following the festival, and the current control measures are stricter, which has affected demand. In terms of inventories, LME inventories fell, and domestic social inventories increased slightly. On the whole, the short-term fundamentals of zinc are intertwined with long and short factors, and the main contradiction is not prominent. Recently, the zinc price has risen due to the widening of the monthly price difference. However, as the 2210 contract enters into delivery, the soft squeeze brought by the delivery gradually ends, and the probability of short-term zinc price shocks is high.
The main Shanghai nickel contract fell 0.26% from the previous trading day on Monday. The mine end is affected by the rainy season in the Philippines. Due to the less-than-expected ore preparation in the early stage of the ferronickel plant, the current supply of nickel ore is tight, and the current spot supply of tradable Indonesian iron is tight. Gradually move towards a tighter balance. In addition, due to the impact of the epidemic, logistics control in some areas is strictly controlled, and there may be delays in the transportation of nickel and iron. The output of stainless steel continued to increase in October, the rapid growth trend of new energy demand has not changed, the short-term supply and demand of nickel are both strong, and the inventory is low. The probability of short-term nickel price shocks is high. Follow the progress of the LME Russia metals ban discussions.
Apple: supply is tight and fluctuates higher;
Apple futures rose sharply on Monday. The main contract AP2301 fluctuated upwards, up by regarding 4% compared with the previous trading day, with a Masukura of 3,000 lots and a position of 190,000 lots. The shipment volume in Shandong production areas has gradually increased, but compared with the same period of previous years, the shipment volume is still small. Fruit farmers are more reluctant to sell, and their enthusiasm for fruit picking is generally average. It is expected that the number of listings may increase significantly from next week. The downstream wholesale market is generally in general, and the stalls choose to ship as soon as possible. The downstream consumption is not good, and Apple may lack continuous upward momentum. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being.
Peanuts: fell sharply, waiting for the callback to stabilize;
Peanut futures fell sharply on Monday. The main contract PK2301 opened lower, down regarding 2% from the previous trading day, reducing positions by 10,000 lots and holding 150,000 lots. The new rice in Henan area is gradually listed, and the grassroots shipping mentality is positive, and the overall supply is better than before. Oil plants have not yet fully entered the market for acquisition. Some oil plants in Luhua strictly control the quality. The current acquisition situation has limited boost to the market. It is recommended to wait and see temporarily and wait for the opportunity to buy following the callback is over.
Cotton: Zheng cotton fluctuated slightly, mainly short-term trading;
On Monday, Zheng Mian basically maintained a slight fluctuation, with a decrease in transactions and a slight increase in positions. China Cotton Information Network showed that the spot index price continued to rise, and the 3128B index rose 5 yuan/ton from the previous day to 15,991 yuan/ton. In the short term, due to the blocking of Xinjiang cotton out of Xinjiang, there is a staged tight supply situation, the spot price is relatively strong, and the price of new and old cotton is upside down. However, in the medium term, weak demand and other factors are suppressed, and the space above is limited. It is expected that Zheng Mian will maintain operation between 13,000-14,000 yuan / ton. The main operation is short-term trading, and the mid-line empty order is held.
White sugar: Zheng sugar continued to rebound, spot prices remained stable;
On Monday, Zheng Tang rebounded once more in late trading following a slight decline in the night trading, with a sharp decrease in transactions and a drop in positions. Spot prices were mostly stable. Domestic short-term perspective. The listing price of beet sugar in the new pressed season is relatively high, and the quotation in Inner Mongolia is 5,800 yuan/ton. Short-term sugar prices or strong shocks. However, the overall consumption is suppressed, and the space above is expected to be limited. Pay attention to the first-line performance of 5,700 yuan / ton, or there may be greater resistance. In operation, short-term trading is recommended.
Soybeans: U.S. soybeans fell, dragging down even meals to lighten up positions;
On Monday, the continuous meal market lightened down, and the U.S. soybeans fell overnight. Lianmei encountered bulls who concentrated on leaving the market to close their positions, and the futures price fell from a high level. Internationally, the CBOT soybean electronic trading continued to decline, the pressure of US soybean harvest and the expected high yield in South America resonated, superimposed the slowdown of US soybean export and loading, and the US soybean was under pressure. Domestically, Huiyi.com’s quotations show that domestic soybean meal spot prices have risen from last Friday, and some brands have risen by 80-90 yuan / ton. The rise of the spot is in contrast to the fall of the meal. The low inventory and high basis in the spot market have suppressed downstream purchases, but the current stage of insufficient supply is still supporting the spot. Under the factors of weak US soybeans and increased selling by the national reserve, the longs left the market to realize profits, and the futures price fell from a high level. However, due to the strong spot, the market fluctuated and repeated between 4000-4200. The short-term low-sucking high-selling operation is should.
Corn: the spot is firm and the futures are mainly volatile;
Corn futures fluctuated weakly on Monday, and the main C2301 was temporarily reported at 2,851 yuan, down 0.04% from the previous day’s settlement price. In terms of spot, the price of corn in the north and south ports remained strong. The grain merchants in the northern ports mainly gathered their own ports, the second-class purchase was 2780-2800 yuan/ton, the Guangdong Shekou New Grain Bulk Ship was 2940-2960 yuan/ton, and the first-class corn price in the container was 3000- 3020 yuan / ton, the listed price of deep processing enterprises in Northeast continued to fall, Heilongjiang deep processing new corn mainstream purchases 2550-2650 yuan / ton, Chenliang is regarding 2700 yuan / ton, Jilin deep processing new corn mainstream purchases 2600 yuan / ton, dry food is approaching 2700-2750 Yuan / ton. From the perspective of the market outlook, the listing volume of new corn in Northeast China will gradually increase in the later period, and it is expected to be under pressure in the short term. However, due to the weak expectation of new crop production increase and rising planting costs, there is limited room for corn to fall back. From the perspective of demand, with the restoration of breeding profits, feed demand is expected to improve. In terms of deep processing, starch profits have also been restored, the operating rate has increased, and the overall demand support has also become stronger. On the whole, the corn market is expected to be dominated by short-term shocks, but there may still be momentum to move higher in the medium and long term. Operationally, do more on dips.
Live pigs: The spot is weak and the futures gapped and opened lower;
Hog futures gapped and opened lower on Monday, with the main LH2301 temporarily reported at 23,775 yuan, down 0.48% from the previous day’s settlement price. In terms of spot, according to Huiyi.com, Henan quoted 27 yuan/kg-27.5 yuan/kg, down 1 yuan/kg from yesterday; Shandong quoted 27.1 yuan/kg-27.7 yuan/kg, down 0.6 yuan/kg from yesterday; Look, the previous spot price increase was a rise with certain emotional and irrational factors in the context of the overall tight supply. The reason behind this is that the industry has strong expectations for the future consumption recovery and the seasonal increase in pig prices, which stimulates the market. The increase in slaughtering and secondary fattening has intercepted part of the supply of standard pigs. At present, some areas report that slaughtering and secondary fattening have intercepted more than 10% of the supply. The continuous increase in weight also reflects the overall impact of slaughtering and secondary fattening. From the perspective of short-term market changes, the price of pigs has risen rapidly, and downstream consumption has not followed up enough, which makes the terminal delivery worse, and the market needs a certain adaptation process. In addition, following the rapid rise in pig prices, some farmers will have a certain impulse to cash in profits. , it is expected that the pressure of short-term pig price adjustment will increase. Operationally, the wet warehouse test the LH2301 contract.
Rebar: high output and low demand, mainly bearish operation;
Thread futures prices fell in shock on Monday. From a macro perspective, the US CPI data is rising, and overseas interest rate hikes are still expected to be strong. The US dollar index strongly suppresses commodity prices, and the war is cloudy; important domestic conferences are held, and shibor rebounds month-on-month. It is expected that the pattern of extremely loose funds has changed slightly; The real estate cut the provident fund interest rate, and the intention to rescue the market is obvious. However, from the perspective of the industry chain, according to Mysteel data, the daily turnover of building materials fell by 7.2% year-on-year, but the output increased by 5.2% year-on-year. The profit of steel production is sluggish, and the output of steel is expected to peak, so the market may have a negative feedback on the price of raw materials. Supply increases, demand decreases. It is recommended that the screw bias operation is the main one.
Ferroalloys: Production rebounded rapidly, demand recovery was lower than expected;
Manganese silicon: Manganese silicon futures were weak and fluctuated on Monday. At present, from the perspective of raw materials, with the warmer demand, manganese ore has stabilized and rebounded. The output of manganese and silicon continued to recover, but it was still at a low level. According to Mysteel statistics, Mysteel counted a sample of 121 independent silicon-manganese enterprises across the country: the operating rate (capacity utilization rate) was 55.83% nationwide, up 3.46% from last week; the average daily output was 26,128 ton, an increase of 1,436 tons. At present, there is still a gap between the supply and demand of production, but the profits of steel mills are sluggish, and the output of steel tends to peak. The fundamentals of manganese and silicon have begun to weaken, but the basis is relatively large. It is recommended to wait and see.
Ferrosilicon: Ferrosilicon futures fell on Monday. At present, the production of ferrosilicon is also continuing to recover. According to Mysteel’s statistics of 136 independent ferrosilicon enterprises in the country, the operating rate (capacity utilization rate) is 43.44% nationwide, down 0.12% from the previous period; the average daily output is 15,586 tons, an increase of 640 tons compared with the previous period. . Five major steel grades of ferrosilicon (weekly demand): 24,537.3 tons, down 1.47% from last week. The supply has recovered rapidly, the output of steel has peaked, and the fundamentals have begun to weaken. It is recommended to wait and see.
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