A short and long term perspective on the palm oil market was provided by the PhD. Julian Conway Mcgill, during the “IV CPAL Palmero Congress” held this week in Antigua Guatemala.
The specialist assured that the world needs four million metric tons annually in a normal economy and with permanent population growth, but now circumstances are stagnant, so other measures have been adopted.
What is the global situation of palm oil?
The biggest change in the global palm oil sector is the decrease in new plantations. Over the past few decades, the growth of palm farming has been relied upon to provide the world with this very useful vegetable oil.
Nowadays this is no longer the case, as yields are not improving, so the increase in palm produce has stopped a bit. We used to talk regarding an annual increase of six million metric tons, but now there is only an increase of half a million to one million.
In your opinion, what has changed?
What has changed is the recognition in South Asia of no longer planting in forested land and, furthermore, the high cost of land makes the expansion of crops very difficult. So future expansion will have to come from performance improvements. In this regard, Guatemala is recognized as a world leader in production per hectare.
So, apart from emphasizing improved performance, this change also means that if we previously viewed palm oil as very cheap because of its abundance, we now have to analyze it for its unique qualities.
As which?
Most vegetable oils are interchangeable, but palm oil has advantages in terms of saturated fats, which can be separated, and byproducts. From a global perspective, people are more aware of those benefits.
Regarding its sustainability, the perception is negative, and it is very difficult to change people’s opinions, but this oil will continue to be produced, due to its benefits.
“The problem for other oil palm producing countries is to raise yields to the level of Guatemala”
Julian Conway Mcgill
In the case of Guatemala, what is the task to maintain these yields?
In this country, companies impress with their culture of performance and excellence. The problem for other oil palm producing countries is to raise yields to the level of Guatemala.
One problem is that the planted area is not being expanded here, despite the fact that there are opportunities to take advantage of palm oil as an excellent option to reduce poverty. In other words, if the volume is increased, it would be a good way to reduce poverty, since very few crops produce as much employment as palm.
What trend is expected in the next five years on a global scale?
For the next five years, perhaps an increase of four million metric tons, at most. Right now the world economy is weak; But under normal conditions, the planet’s population needs four million more per year for its consumption.
In pest prevention
Raúl Antonio Rodas Suazo, director of the International Regional Organization for Agricultural Health (Oirsa), explained that the climate crisis has a direct impact on the occurrence of pests and diseases.
He assured that there are pests that proliferate due to conditions of high humidity and precipitation, and others that, on the contrary, need little rain, high temperatures or droughts, among others.
“So, the relationship between climatic variables with the incidence of pests and diseases that affect animals and plants is direct. As an organization specialized in agricultural health, we are always vigilant regarding what is happening, in terms of climate to have the capacity to do health intelligence, predict in some way and have predictive mathematical models. This, to support producers with alerts regarding what will be happening with the climate in the near future,” he explained.
The technician assured that the institution remains vigilant once morest so-called “quarantine importance” pests that do not exist in Guatemala or the region, but that have entry pressure through cargo or luggage, which can be introduced and dispersed in the territory.
On the other hand, surveillance schemes for pests that are known as endemic, which are those that exist in Guatemala and that have economic importance due to damage to crops. “There are pests and diseases that are there and that can arrive on a flight or in a maritime container,” he warned.
Meanwhile, Carlos Urías Morales, regional director of plant health at Oirsa, emphasized that a pest can transform a productive sector, which in this case is that of palm.
The strongest threat, which is already an epidemic in other countries, is the bud, a disease that is affecting the producing areas of Colombia and Ecuador, while an epidemic is feared in Honduras.
The specialist stressed that many biosafety measures must be taken to enter farms and manage new production systems. “Guatemala has a strong leadership in palm production, but must be constantly vigilant to prevent this and another pest known as “weevil,” which can cause the plant to die quickly.
Prevention is the best way to control and a prevention model can be achieved in coordination with the competent authorities, he recommended.
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