This forecast takes into account a 15.8% drop in agricultural value added and an increase in non-agricultural value added of 3.3%, year-on-year, specifies the HCP which has just published its economic report. of the third quarter of 2022 and outlook for the fourth quarter.
Indeed, value added excluding agriculture would be particularly driven by the tertiary branches, whose contribution to overall economic growth would amount to +2.6 points. In the secondary sector, the downturn in mining activities should ease and growth in industrial activities should be maintained, favoring a 0.7% increase in the added value of secondary branches.
As for domestic demand, it should maintain its support for economic growth, driven by a consolidation of consumer spending by public administrations.
Growth in household consumption should continue in Q4 2022 at a rate of 2.6%, in a context marked by a slight downturn in consumer prices.
On the other hand, investment expenditure is likely to decline significantly compared to Q3 2022. Business leaders are likely to be more cautious in the face of the tightening of financial conditions and the prospects of a turnaround in the international economy.
The said note also shows that foreign demand addressed to Morocco would continue to moderate, to close the year with growth forecast at 4%, instead of 9.6% a year earlier. The contribution of net external demand to growth should remain negative and reduce growth by one point in Q4 2022.