The basket held by the government is small, however, if there is a gap, it will be attempted to be exploited, without the slightest deviation from the Greek “red lines”.
Good timing
The Athens-Ankara debate reaches the political core at a time which, according to secure government sources, is the best possible. Greece is in the best diplomatic and military situation, in contrast to Turkey, which is at the level of its worst relations with the West, due to its stance on both the Ukraine war and the war in the Middle East. Greece has the strongest diplomatic position it has had in recent decades, having strengthened its relations with the UN, having upgraded its relations with the USA and having conquered a leading role in the EU. At the same time, it has the defense agreements with the USA and France and has significantly strengthened its defense equipment with Rafale, Belh@rra, F-16 Viper, F-35 etc. Turkey’s advantages remain its large population, which also solves its demographics, and its domestic production of weapons systems.
The government, without discussing anything other than the delimitation of the EEZ and the continental shelf, is attempting to exploit the positive situation, without any desire to distance itself from the fixed national line and much more without any desire to accept the revisionary demands of Turkey.
Thus, on November 8, the two foreign ministers, in an on-off meeting, will discuss the scope of the negotiation. As a senior government source emphasized in Sunday’s Free Press, if Turkey raises other issues beyond the delimitation of the EEZ and the continental shelf, such as e.g. issues of sovereignty or “Turkish minority” in Thrace or “solution-package”, then “the discussion ends there”. The most likely development seems to be this.
However, if Turkey accepts the specific agenda, then the talks will move to the “second phase”, which will also be “the technical phase”. That is, expert scientists and cartographers from both countries – under the supervision of the Foreign Ministry – will try to place the lines precisely on the map. Where exactly, that is, separate Greek and Turkish rights. If – which is difficult – there is an agreement on paper, then at the meeting Mr. Mitsotakis-T. Erdoğan, which will be held in January 2025 in Ankara, there may be a discussion on entering into a co-promissory note for the appeal to the International Court of Justice in The Hague.
The processes are intense, but none of the two sides, and certainly the Greek one, is not on a pink bubble… The difficulties are too many and the expectations are too few.
Plan B
If, as is most likely, the dialogue breaks down, then there is a plan B: How to keep calm waters in the Aegean, low political tones and a good climate in the relations between the two countries with mutual benefit. The same sources point out that the good climate in Greece-Turkey relations “should not be taken for granted” if there is a diplomatic impasse. B.C. the very limited violations of the Greek airspace, which rested the Air Force and helped to save millions of euros in fighter fuel, the cooperation in Immigration -mainly in terms of better control of smugglers-, the mutually beneficial commercial agreements and the visa in Turkish citizens, who strengthened local economies in the 10 Greek islands of the North Aegean, should not be taken for granted. However, it is important that tensions in the Aegean remain low, at a time of war and the risk of generalized instability and fluidity.
The extreme voices of both sides remain a critical parameter for both the Greek-Turkish and the Cypriot issues. It is no coincidence that H. Fidan, in an extensive interview he gave to the Turkish television network Haber Global, spoke with intensity about the “misinformation” carried out by extreme Turkish circles, who talk about the “condescension” of the Turkish government towards Greece . He said characteristically: “When you go to disinformation, the incident develops into another dimension. Most of the time something is said because “that’s the way it is”, without any basis, without any point of reference. Foreign policy matters are serious, not funny. They must be approached with caution.”
We have 3 critical weeks ahead of us. And as government circles assure, Mr. Mitsotakis has no intention, and no reason to proceed with controversial “solutions”, as he did e.g. Al. Tsipras with the Prespa Agreement, putting against him not only History, but also the great majority of the Greek people.
Low expectations for the Cypriot
Monitoring the outcome of the Greek-Turkish talks will, in all probability, also be the development or not in the Cyprus issue. The only tangible benefit is that after several years, with the effective intervention of Greek diplomacy, it came out of the UN’s “refrigerator” and is among the Organization’s priorities. It is no coincidence in this respect that the tripartite talks have been restarted and the UN Secretary-General A. Guterres himself is participating in them.
And for the Cypriot issue, expectations are not high, as the Greek Cypriot side is not even a matter of discussion, e.g. for the partition of Cyprus or for the recognition of the Turkish Cypriot pseudo-state, which have been raised with intensity lately by Mr. Erdogan and Tatars.
OPEN FRONT WITH TA FAKE NEWS
Antonis Samaras and the… ultra-patriots
Mr. Mitsotakis, speaking of “super-patriots” or “patriots of the lentil”, certainly did not include, according to Megaros Maximos, A. Samaras. Besides, the prime minister also said it speaking from Brussels: “Allow me to make a distinction between Mr. Samara’s views and the rest of the voices that are heard around these issues.”
The absence of the former prime minister, together with K. Karamanlis from the celebration for the 50th anniversary of the founding of the National Democratic Party, certainly did not cause a shiver of emotion in the Maximos Palace. Not even the speech of A. Samaras in Cyprus, which was based on a “sound”, caused joy in the government, and indeed at a critical turning point in the Greek-Turkish talks. However, as government sources assure, there is no way to identify the former prime minister with “extreme” populists like Mr. Velopoulos and A. Latinopoulos. A. Samaras’ views on national issues are well known and respected.
“Sprayed Right”
However, the government’s front against the “sprayed Right” and the fake news it spreads will remain open. Neither the fictions of Mr. Velopoulos, who has “contracted out” patriotism like wax ointments, nor the “ultra-patriotic figure” of A. Latinopoulos, who is photographed “proudly” among the Turkish-loving Orban and Le Pen, will no longer remain inviolable.
The positive developments in Immigration, with Greece at the forefront of stricter guarding of European borders and the creation of mechanisms for the rapid return of illegal immigrants to their homelands or to safe third countries from which they come to Europe (e.g. Turkey), they disarm the basic argument of the “super-patriots”. As the government estimates, the developments regarding Immigration, but also the developments in Greek-Turkish, will leave the “patriots of the lentil” without a narrative and with the unique company of their fake news and sprayed theories.
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