The war, record energy prices or the extension of nuclear power are the highlights of the last 3 months. Who did they benefit?
First, who benefits from war?
Essentially to individual personalities, more than to parties. The biggest increase in our popularity charts is Defense Minister Ludivine Dedonder: + 10 places in Wallonia. The Tournaisian socialist occupies 7th place in the ranking. Same breakthrough noted for Sammy Mahdi, Secretary of State for Asylum and as such exhibited for the reception of Ukrainians: 7th Flemish personality, 12th in Brussels, for his entry into the ranking. Alexander De Croo, he climbs on the first place of the podium in Brussels, even if it is alongside Sophie Wilmès.
Among the major issues that punctuated the survey period were high energy prices. In the wake of 3th aid plan from the federal government, to support Belgians in paying their energy bills.
Who benefits from these high energy prices?
The PTB and the N-VA, which have been at the forefront of criticism on this issue in the Chamber, in the televised debates, are clearly reaping the benefits. For the communists, we are right in the social files, precariousness, the DNA of the party in a way. For the N-VA, a file where the nationalists managed to outdo their rivals from Vlaams Belang.
The file does not benefit any party of the majority, obviously. 5 of the 7 coalition parties would lose elected members if we voted once more tomorrow, with the exception of MR and Vooruit. And these two parties have in fact drawn the chestnuts from the fire of this majority for several months, well before the surge in fuel prices.
On a personal level, we note that the strongest progressions in Flanders in our popularity charts are for Vincent Van Peteghem and Tinne Vanderstraeten. Two ministers on the front of the stage, in the recent aid plan, to lower the bills, and the price of the liter at the pump
Who benefits from the nuclear extension?
One would have thought that the extension of nuclear power, which occurred in the middle of our survey period, handicaps the environmental parties. Ecolo and Groen are indeed the staunchest opponents of this technology and had to bend on Friday. And yet, no consequences for the scores of the French-speaking and Dutch-speaking green parties in our survey. Ecolo loses half a point in Wallonia but wins one in Brussels, Groen’s score is stable.
Perhaps it is too early to measure the impact of the government’s decision on Friday.
On the other hand, the Ecolo personalities seem to suffer from the sequence. Among the biggest setbacks, those of the two co-presidents of Ecolo. Jean-Marc Nollet loses 8 places in Wallonia, in our popularity ranking, 10 places lost by his colleague Rajae Maouane in Brussels. Losses also for the Deputy Prime Minister Georges Gilkinet and for the Walloon Minister of Mobility Philippe Henry.
All environmentalists are also housed in the second half of the ranking, none exceeds 15th place in popularity. Only Petra De Sutter and Tinne Vanderstraeten, two Flemish environmentalists, have taken advantage of their visibility over the past three months.
As a reminder, the RTLinfo/Ipsos/Le Soir Grand Barometer for this month of March surveyed a representative sample of Belgians aged 18 and over 2,614 people (598 in Brussels, 1,009 in Wallonia and 1,007 in Flanders). The survey was conducted from March 15 to 22, 2022. The interviews took place online and the maximum margin of error, for a 50% percentage and a 95% confidence level is approximately 3.1% in Flanders, 3.1% in Wallonia; 4% in Brussels.
