Latvia Braces for GPS Disruption as Russia Sands teh Navigation System
The Baltic sky is facing a growing challenge: intentional disruptions to GPS signals. While suspicion has long loomed over Russia’s potential interference with GPS systems in neighboring countries like Finland and the Baltics,the situation has escalated considerably as the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The year 2024 witnessed a record number of GPS signal disturbances, with December alone recording a staggering 292 incidents – an average of 9 per day. This trend continues unabated into 2025, with 121 signal failures already reported in Latvian airspace as of January 23rd.
“It has become the new normal, so to speak,” Maris Gorodcovs, director of Latvia’s Civil Aviation Agency, stated when asked about the pervasive nature of the problem.
The root cause of this disruption is believed to be Russia’s attempt to protect it’s airspace from drone attacks. However, experts are also considering the possibility that it is a purposeful tactic to test the West’s resilience and response capabilities.
“airbaltic, such as, reported to us last year that their onboard computers detected a total of 3,200 disturbances throughout the year,” Gorodcovs explains, highlighting the tangible impact on airlines operating in the region.
when pilots encounter GPS signal interference,they instantly notify air traffic controllers,who then relay the details to nearby aircraft.in these instances, the pilots switch from using satellite signals to relying on ground-based towers for navigation. Coordinates are received from the towers, enabling the plane to maintain its flight path safely.
The constant risk of GPS disruption has forced a reevaluation of aviation technology. “No one sees such a solution as it might very well be avoided at the moment,” Gorodcovs states. Aivars Pucitis, a board member of Latvian Air Traffic, adds, “What has been decided is that those classic navigation systems or old systems that were planned to be replaced and completely replaced by satellite-based ones will continue their work. Those plans have been modified, as it turns out satellite navigation systems are extremely easy to tamper with.”
This shift in strategy underscores the vulnerability of relying solely on satellite-based systems for navigation, especially in the face of deliberate interference. It also emphasizes the need for robust backup systems and contingency plans to ensure the safety and security of air travel.
GPS Jamming: A Growing Threat in Hybrid Warfare
Concerns are mounting over the increasing instances of GPS interference, a tactic increasingly employed in the ongoing hybrid warfare landscape. Incidents involving civilian aircraft experiencing unexpected deviations and malfunctions in their navigation systems are becoming more frequent, raising alarms about potential safety risks.
last year, two Finnair flights en route to Tartu Airport in Estonia encountered GPS disruptions, forcing them to abruptly turn back. Tartu Airport lacked alternative navigation systems, highlighting the vulnerability of air travel to such interference. Mark Kohve, director of the Estonian Defense and Security Center, explains, “Russia is protecting itself from drone attacks.That’s why signal suppressors are used. Such disturbances can even be observed in the airspace around Israel and Iran.”
These incidents are not isolated events. Flight tracking platforms like Flightradar regularly display deviations in aircraft routes, indicating ongoing GPS anomalies. Videos from cockpit recordings capture the unnerving moment when onboard instruments go haywire, alarming pilots with false danger signals at altitudes of 37,000 feet.
Intelligence agencies from the UK, Estonia, and several other nations suspect the “Tobol” system, based near Kaliningrad, is responsible for these GPS disruptions. This expansive satellite dish installation acts as a shield, protecting Russian military bases from NATO satellite-guided missiles. Tobol disrupts aircraft wireless communication systems, bombarding them with false signals that mislead pilots into thinking they are in a different location or at a different altitude.
While officials claim these incidents cause stress for pilots but do not pose immediate threats to flight safety, British military officials warn of the unnecessary risks to civilian aircraft and the potential for dangerous consequences.
A critically important portion of Tobol’s technology was developed by the “Russian Center for Special technologies.” Recent leaks of confidential information from this company perhaps reveal how the device operates, potentially exposing this information to NATO allies and even the Ukrainian army.
Martīcs Vārdītis, a military expert and author of the blog “Vara bungas,” emphasizes the need for a proactive response: “if we have a wartime state of emergency, then we must have a hybrid state of emergency for hybrid wartime. In such a case, the action on our part would be to order some critical infrastructure service companies to implement security measures that correspond to a hybrid warfare situation. It can be predicted that if we had a case in Rezekne with a drone,we reacted to it. There was a situation at the Riga airport, some kind of reaction will follow it. But it is just as well to predict that there will be other critical infrastructure objects where the same problems will appear and we will respond to them again. Our correct course of action would be to be proactive. Predict that such cases will continue, that there are systems and solutions that are alternatives to GPS systems and that it is possible that their implementation in real life also in civilian life should be forced, because we have a hybrid war situation.”
The Ukrainian conflict has highlighted the critical role of GPS in warfare, with both sides increasingly relying on it to control drones and other combat equipment. In Ukraine, SpaceX’s STARLINK system has become widely used as a vital substitute for GPS, offering reliable communication and navigation.NATO, however, is working to develop its own self-reliant GPS alternative, seeking to reduce dependence on private entities like spacex.
A Silent threat in the Digital Age: The Vulnerability of GPS and Espionage Risks
The reliance on Global Positioning System (GPS) technology has become so deeply ingrained in our daily lives that we frequently enough take its seamless functioning for granted. From navigating our cars to guiding airplanes and ensuring the safety of maritime vessels, GPS plays a crucial role in modern society. But what happens when this invisible network, the bedrock of our interconnected world, is compromised?
“If once it was believed that the infantryman with a rifle was the highest military achievement, that would give a result, then it slowly changed, it turned out to be the air force, mechanization, nuclear weapons, now electronic warfare is becoming an integral part of any operation of even the smallest tactical size,” explains Valdis kuzmins, a researcher at the Latvian National Defense Academy. He highlights the evolving nature of warfare,where electronic dominance is increasingly critical.
Kuzmins further notes that NATO is actively developing its own system to counter potential GPS vulnerabilities. “It requires the launch of satellites,” he says, “but it would be an alternative if suddenly a private company suddenly puts forward rules that are not acceptable.” This underscores the complex geopolitical landscape surrounding GPS, where both state actors and private entities wield significant influence.
The widespread use of GPS extends beyond military applications. It’s embedded in our cars, boats, smartphones, and even smartwatches. Accurate timekeeping,vital for financial transactions and countless other systems,also relies on the integrity of GPS signals.
Disruptions to this network can have cascading effects, jeopardizing not just navigation but also critical infrastructure and financial stability. While airlines have contingency plans for GPS outages, maritime vessels also feel the impact. When asked about potential GPS disruptions affecting Latvian ships, Commander of the Navy Māris Polen offered a cautious response. “We have not observed incidents as pronounced as ours,” he stated in an interview with TV3. “There are various cases that have been reported in public space. We don’t know why this happens, but let’s assume it’s been intentionally disrupted. But in shipping there are various other methods of navigating. Of course, it affects, but it is not very destructive.”
Ainars Latkovskis,Chairman of the National Security Commission of the Saeima,acknowledges the gravity of the situation,emphasizing that “our security forces take this matter very seriously.” He cautions that Russia,actively testing vulnerabilities in latvia and other Western nations,could exploit GPS vulnerabilities to gather sensitive information,potentially weakening national defenses.
Latkovskis stresses the importance of not only detecting potential disruptions but also investigating their origins and motives. “From where it is carried out, in what way it is carried out,” he highlights, emphasizing the need for extensive analysis to mitigate potential risks.
The growing dependence on GPS technology presents both immense opportunities and significant vulnerabilities. Understanding these risks and actively working to mitigate them is crucial to safeguarding our interconnected world from potential threats.
