2023-04-27 21:17:00
As announced by the Minister of Economy, Sergio Massa, since Tuesday the Government has launched “all the tools of the State” to stop the escalation of free dollars. First, it started with strong interventions in the bond market, even at the expense of the few currencies that remain in the Central Bank (BCRA). Then this followingnoon it raised interest rates by another 1,000 basis points (to 91% nominal annual rate). This is how, today, the blue dollar fell for the second round in a row and tried to follow in the footsteps of financial exchange rates.
In the streets of the city porteña, the parallel exchange rate went through another day of marked volatility. In search of determining what his new floor will be, in the first negotiations of the day it went down to $462, but at the end of the round the selling tip stabilized in the $467. It meant a drop of $7 compared to the previous round (-1.4%) and $28 in the last two rounds (-6%). However, when looking at the complete route that it traveled throughout April, it continues to register a strong advance: in the last month it jumped $74 (+18.8%).
The official interventions that have been carried out in the bond market do not have a direct impact on the blue. But, although it has its own dynamic in the informality of the caves, with the passing of the days the price usually follows the steps of the financial dollars.
“A blue dollar at $500 and a MEP at $460 does not hold up, Why are arbitrations encouraged?. People begin to buy dollars in the capital market and then physically sell them in the informal sector, where they pay better. So they make a difference. But, at the end of the day, the financiers demand more and the supply in the caves is added. That ends at some point,” said financial analyst Christian Buteler.
On the other hand, the interventions do directly affect financial prices, since these assets arise from the purchase and sale of sovereign bonds. Today, the MEP dollar traded at $442.23, a daily drop of $4.2 (-0.9%). While, cash with settlement (CCL) it was negotiated in the capital market at $457.36, almost $12 less compared to the previous closing (-2.5%).
“Yesterday the Central Bank was once once more active in the local market operating once morest dollars to tame the CCL. Despite not having reached the level of Tuesday, the volume traded in AL30C and GD30C in BYMA (t+2) touched 159.1 million nominal, well above the average of 3.8 million nominal of the two previous months”, pointed out from Personal Investment Portfolio (PPI).
In monetary terms, the brokerage firm estimates that yesterday the interventions totaled around US$37.4 million. Adding Tuesday’s $53.7 million (a figure that was above initial projections), This change in strategy that the Government has been implementing has meant US$91.1 million for the Central Bank in the last two rounds. Despite the implementation of the agricultural dollar, today the monetary authority had to part with US$79 million.
In parallel, today the Central announced a new interest rate hike. Without being enough the movement made last Thursday, of 300 basis points, this Thursday they increased them by 1000 more points. Now, the retail fixed term will pay an annual nominal rate (TNA) of 91%. It is 140% effective (TEA), with the aim of making peso instruments attractive.
“It is a very strong increase. For the first time since the rate ‘corridor’ came into force (with which the BCRA, in theory, defines when, how and how much it moves rates), it raised them above what the Treasury paid. It may bring some temporary calm to the dollar, but the dynamics of the quasi-fiscal deficit are already running on autopilot”, considered Juan Pablo Albornoz, economist at Invecq.
In line with the inflationary acceleration, in the last wheels the wholesale exchange rate it also increased the pace of its daily devaluations. This Thursday quoted $222, $0.43 more than yesterday (+0.2%), although in the last five wheels it moved at a speed of 8.3% per month. In this way, the monetary authorities seek that the gap Don’t Expand Anymore: Compared to Blue, there is currently a 110% price difference.
“If this rate is maintained, the highest since 2019, it would be above inflation. The real exchange rate would increase in line with the claims of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). In this sense, the BCRA seems to be ‘doing its homework’ in this area following the inflation data for March. It will be necessary to closely monitor the accelerated slippage that the BCRA is giving to the official exchange rate in a context of acceleration of nominality”, they pointed out from Delphos Investment.
At the Banco Nación window, the official retail exchange rate was offered at $228.50 (+0.2%). This is the reference price for other market securities. For case, the dollar card It arises from adding 30% of COUNTRY tax and another 45% of Profits, which yields a price of $399.88. If another 25% of Personal Property is added, it is the Qatari dollar, at $457.
It was a day of red numbers for the Buenos Aires Stock Exchange. The S&P Merval It was listed at 296,808 units, a drop of 2.6% compared to the previous round. In the general panel, which brings together the main Argentine stocks, the biggest falls were for Telecom Argentina (-3.5%), BBVA (-3.4%), Pampa Energía (-3.3%) and Banco Macro (-3.3%).
In contrast, local companies listed on the New York Stock Exchange (known as ADRs) presented mixed variations. The papers went up Ternium (+3,1%), Take off (+2,1%) y They are gloating (+1.4%); while, on the other hand, the shares of America Corporation (-2,7%), Central Puerto (-2,5%) y Tenaris (-2,3%).
in the market for bonds sovereigns, affected by the interventions carried out by the Government, almost all maturities and legislations operated in negative territory. Abroad, the globals -foreign law- registered drops of up to 4.06% (Global 2046) and the bonars -local law-, of up to 2.78% (Bonar 2029). The country risk remained relatively stable at 2,657 basis points (+0.6%).
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