scale down Goldman Sachs Bank Its oil price forecast for 2023 predicts a market surplus in early 2023, mitigating the risk of a winter price hike.
The bank also lowered its forecasts for the price of Brent crude for the first and second quarters of 2023, to $90 and $95 per barrel, from $115 and $105 per barrel, respectively.
The bank said the risk of higher oil prices this winter is less with China’s consumption lower than previously expected, Russia’s exports at levels close to those recorded before the war, and production problems in Kazakhstan and Nigeria receding, according to Archyde.com.
Goldman Sachs expects the oil market to end the current quarter with a surplus of 1.6 million barrels per day, and that the decline in seasonal demand will result in a surplus of 1.3 million barrels per day in the first quarter of next year.
With regard to the growth of global demand, the bank expected it to be by two million barrels per day in 2023, with the lifting of anti-Corona restrictions in China and the recovery of international travel.
For the full year of 2023, Goldman Sachs said it expects Brent to average $98 per barrel and WTI at $92 per barrel, down from its previous forecast of $110 for Brent and $105 for WTI.
In the last two quarters of 2023, Goldman Sachs expected Brent crude to rise between $100 and $105 per barrel, which will remain lower than its previous forecast at $110 per barrel.
Goldman Sachs said it expects prices to rise in 2024, bringing the average price of Brent crude to $105 a barrel and WTI to $99 a barrel.