2024-02-15 00:01:00
Gold trading reminder: Investors reduce their bets on the Federal Reserve’s early interest rate cut, and gold prices test the 100-day moving average for six consecutive years
In early Asian trading on Thursday (February 15), spot gold fluctuated within a narrow range and was currently trading around $1,993.41 per ounce, barely holding above the 100-day moving average of 1,990.56; previous U.S. inflation data were higher than expected, prompting investors to reduce On bets that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates early, the price of gold has fallen for six consecutive trading days. It hit an intraday low of $1,984.12 per ounce on Wednesday, a new low since December 13. However, the overall trend was choppy, and the closing price barely stayed above the 100-day moving average. .
Bob Haberkorn, senior market strategist at RJO Futures, said: “Gold prices fell due to the heat of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. It is difficult for gold prices to rise significantly, because the previous rise above $2,000 was partly attributed to the Fed’s faster response to the Federal Reserve. Expectations of rate cuts.”
He added that the catalyst for gold’s decline would be further confirmation that the Federal Reserve may not cut interest rates anytime soon.
Data on Tuesday showed that U.S. consumer prices rose more than expected in January, rising 3.1% year-on-year, higher than the 2.9% forecast by economists in the survey.
Traders currently see three rate cuts of 25 basis points each in 2024, which is consistent with the Fed’s dot plot released in December, which had previously expected four rate cuts. The Fed may wait until June before cutting interest rates.
Investors will now focus on U.S. retail sales and producer price index (PPI) data due on Thursday and Friday respectively, as well as speeches from Federal Reserve officials, of which at least five are scheduled to speak this week.
The latest data from CME’s “Fed Watch” shows that the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in the range of 5.25%-5.50% in March is 89.5%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 10.5%. The probability of keeping interest rates unchanged by May is 61.4%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point interest rate cut is 35.3%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point interest rate cut is 3.3%.
ANZ Bank strategists pointed out after analysis that “U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar soared after strong CPI. Core CPI rose 0.4% month-on-month in January, weakening hopes for an early interest rate cut. As U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar rose in the report, Gold came under immediate pressure after the surge. The precious metal has held above the key psychological level of $2,000 an ounce since mid-December on hopes that the Federal Reserve must quickly lower borrowing costs. This now looks extremely unlikely if Other economic data remains strong and prices may come under further pressure.”
Kinesis Money said in a report that a break below current levels could trigger further losses in silver, while a rebound would help solidify technical support at $22.
[Thursday’s trading day focuses on financial data and events (Beijing time)]
①08:00 Fed Bostic delivers a speech
②08:30 Australia’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in January
③15:00 UK fourth quarter GDP annual rate revision; UK December three-month GDP monthly rate; UK December seasonally adjusted merchandise trade account; UK December industrial and manufacturing output monthly rate
④16:00 Swiss consumer confidence index in January, European Central Bank President Lagarde’s speech
⑤17:00 IEA releases monthly crude oil market report
⑥18:00 Eurozone’s December seasonally adjusted trade balance
⑦21:30 The number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week to February 10; 21:30 The monthly retail sales rate of the United States in January; 21:30 The New York Fed manufacturing index in the United States in February; the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index in the United States in February; Import price index monthly rate in January
⑧22:15 Monthly rate of U.S. industrial output in January
⑨23:00 US February NAHB housing market index; US December business inventory monthly rate
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