In the first round of the French presidential election held on the 10th (local time), French president Emmanuel Macron, the center-left French president, and the far-right candidate Marine Le Pen of the National Coalition (RN) won first and second places, respectively, and clash once more for the first time in five years. If President Macron wins the runoff on the 24th, he will be re-elected for the first time in 20 years since former President Jacques Chirac in 2002. If Le Pen wins, France’s first far-right and female president will be born.
● Macron and Le Pen meet once more following 5 years
As a result of the vote counting on the 11th, President Macron received 27.6% of the vote, and Le Pen candidate received 23.4% of the vote. It was followed by far-left candidate Jean-Luc Melanchon ‘Unsubmitted France’ (LFI) with 21.9% and far-right journalist Eric Gemour-Leconquette with 7.1%.
In the French presidential election, if a majority of votes are not obtained in the first round of voting, the winner of the first and second places will hold a runoff two weeks later. In the 2017 presidential election, President Macron and Le Pen took first and second places in the first round, and then Macron (66.1%) defeated Le Pen (33.9%) in the second round.
President Macron, who was expected to have a generous advantage, lost his approval rating due to the ‘McKinsey Gate’, which paid excessive advisory fees to private companies just before the first election. Candidate Le Pen narrowed the gap to 2 percentage points in an opinion poll on the 8th, with promises closely related to life, such as reducing highway tolls and energy VAT.
However, the 4.2 percentage point gap between President Macron and Le Pen in the first round of the election today is larger than the gap in the first round of the 2017 presidential election (2.7 percentage points). The daily Le Figaro analyzed that “Some of Macron’s last-minute campaign, which focused on the dangers of extremism, worked.”
● Pro-globalization Progressivism VS Anti-immigrant Nationalism
Many observers say that it is too early for Macron to be relieved. On the 8th, a poll by opinion polling institutes such as Elabe predicted that in the runoff vote, President Macron had 51-54% and Le Pen candidate 46-49%.
Politico, an American political media outlet, said, “The clash between Macron and Le Pen is the end of the traditional left-right confrontation that dominated the French political structure following World War II. It clearly shows that it has turned into a symbolic anti-immigrant and anti-EU nationalist confrontation.” In fact, the right-wing Republican Party (LR) candidate Valerie Pecrés, the left-right giant party in France, received 4.8% of the vote, the left-wing Socialist Party (PS) No Hidal and the mayor of Paris only 1.7%.
Daily Le Monde analyzed that the runoff also depended on the concentration of firepower between the ‘Republic Front’, the left, right, and center political solidarity that had prevented the ‘far-right president’ from taking power and the anti-immigrant front, which said that “France cannot be lost to Muslims”. In his first ballot victory speech on the 10th, President Macron said, “Thank you to everyone who opposes the far right.”
President Macron is likely to win the second round, but the key is where the votes for the candidates who are eliminated in the first round will go. The daily Le Figaro reported that Melanchon LFI candidate, who rose to third place in the first election, is in possession of the casting boat. After losing the first round of elections, Melanchon LFI candidate told his supporters, “Don’t give Le Pen a single vote.”
Of the 10 candidates who might not make it to the runoff, including melanchon, six of them have expressed their support for President Macron. Candidates Pecres, Hidalgo, and Green Party (EELV) candidate Yannick Zado appealed to “reject extremism”. On the other hand, Jemour and the nationalist candidate Nicolas Dupont-enan of the ‘French on the Rise’ declared their support for Le Pen, saying, “We cannot just watch those who leave 2 million immigrants alone.”
It is analyzed that the live TV debate scheduled for the 20th is the last variable. Daily Rezeko reported, “In 2017, Le Pen showed far-right thinking in TV debates without filtering, and his approval ratings dropped.
Paris = Correspondent Yunjong Kim zozo@donga.com
