2023-10-05 13:53:51
A container ship at full speed Image’in / stock.adobe.com
International trade in goods will increase by only 0.8% in 2023, predicts the World Trade Organization.
Bad news for international trade. Its growth should be much lower than the forecasts established in April, announces the World Trade Organization (WTO) which expects an increase of 0.8% in 2023, far from the 1.7% previously forecast.
Global trade and production slowed sharply in the fourth quarter of 2022, penalized by persistent inflation and tighter monetary policy notably in the United States and the European Union as well as by tensions in the real estate markets in China which limit the recovery. Added to the consequences of the war in Ukraine, this darkens the outlook, estimates the WTO which expects global GDP growth of 2.6% in 2023.
Globalization is becoming more and more compartmentalized
Trade growth is expected to accelerate next year, in line with “slow but stable GDP growth“. But this improvement might suffer from the ongoing process of “splitting» of the supply chain and trade which is “linked to geopolitical tensions», predicts the WTO. If the exchange of goods continues, it progresses within rival geopolitical blocs and globalization becomes more and more compartmentalized.
The share of intermediate goods in world trade fell from 51% over the last three years to 48.5% in the first half of 2023, notes the WTO.
However, broader deglobalization is not “fortunately, not yet on the agenda », Notes the organization for which there is no inclusion without free trade. “The slowdown in trade predicted for 2023 is worrying because of its negative consequences on the standard of living of people around the world», Warns the Director General of the WTO, Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala.
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