Global Oil Demand Soaring to Record Highs: IEA Predicts 102.2 Million Barrels per Day by 2023

2023-08-11 14:21:10

The International Energy Agency (IEA) is raising its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2023, which is on its way to its “highest level on record” at 102.2 million barrels per day.

Without waiting, global oil demand has already “reached a record 103 million barrels per day (mb/d) in June and August might experience a new peak”, according to the agency’s monthly report.

“Global oil demand is at record highs, boosted by summer air travel, increased use of petroleum (fuel oil) in power generation and soaring Chinese petrochemical activity,” says the IEA. .

For the full year, “global oil demand is expected to increase by 2.2 million barrels (mb/d) per day” from 2022 “to reach 102.2 mb/d in 2023, China representing more than 70% of the growth”, specifies the agency.

This is “its highest annual level ever recorded”, according to the IEA which already forecast in February a record for the current year, of 101.9 million barrels per day, following 99.9 mb/ d in 2022 and 97.6 mb/d in 2021.

Supply drop

The thirst for oil comes amid tight markets as “global oil supply fell by 910,000 barrels per day to 100.9 mb/d in July. A sharp cut in Saudi production in July saw production in the OPEC+ bloc fall by 1.2 mb/d to 50.7 mb/d, while non-OPEC+ volumes increased by 310,000 barrels per day to 50.2 mb/d”, details the agency.

While the world is called upon to reduce its consumption of fossil fuels, which are harmful to the climate, in order to limit global warming to +1.5°c compared to the pre-industrial era, the IEA expects for the year 2024 to a slowdown in the increase in oil demand.

“With the post-pandemic recovery having largely run its course and the energy transition accelerating, growth will slow to 1 mb/d in 2024,” the agency predicts.

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