Global oil demand has returned to and even exceeded pre-pandemic levels at the end of 2022, according to figures released on Tuesday by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), which forecasts further growth in demand in 2023, at a record level, driven by the rebound in China.
While climate change is accelerating, the consumption of fossil fuels responsible for global warming is not weakening, on the contrary: in the last quarter of 2022, the global demand for oil estimated by the cartel has passed the 100 million barrels per day mark. , at 101.17 million barrels per day.
In the last quarter of 2019, demand reached 100.79 million barrels per day and it had brought the average demand for the year 2019 to 99.76 mb/d, figures which are estimates subject to revisions.
Energy analyst firm Rystad estimated last week that carbon emissions from fossil fuels (oil, gas and coal) would continue to rise until around 2025, before starting to fall therefollowing.
Oil demand had collapsed with the pandemic, to 90.98 mb/d in 2020, before rising to 97.01 mb/d in 2021 and then to 99.55 mb/d in 2022.
It was supported last year by “solid economic activity in OECD and non-OECD countries, apart from China”, underlines OPEC.
For this year, the cartel now expects year-on-year growth of 2.32 million barrels per day to 101.87 million mb/d. This corresponds to 0.1 mb/d more compared to the last point in January.
Most of the growth will come from non-OECD countries where oil demand is expected to increase by 2 mb/d and “exceed pre-pandemic levels for the second year in a row”, driven by China, Asia and the Middle East, according to OPEC.
– Return of China and kerosene –
In China, “annual oil needs declined last year”, notes the cartel, but “the end of the zero Covid policy in December should support oil demand in 2023”, according to the cartel.
In developed OECD countries, growth in demand should slow down, with an increase of around 0.4 mb/d in 2023 (following +1.3 mb/d in 2022) and we will be “just below pre-pandemic levels in absolute volumes,” according to OPEC.
“OECD countries in America should drive growth, while demand from OECD countries in Europe and Asia-Pacific should stagnate”, details OPEC.
By type of petroleum product, motor fuels should be the “main driver” of the increase in demand in 2023, with gasoline and diesel consumption expected to increase by 1.1 mb/d, well above its pre-pandemic levels.
Jet fuel demand should also continue to rebound and increase by 1.1 mb/d, as air traffic continues to recover for both domestic and international routes.
Demand for jet fuel, however, is expected to remain 9% lower than before the pandemic. Last year, jet fuel demand increased in OECD countries, but “decline slightly” in the non-OECD area.
The rise of the electric vehicle fleet should change the game in a few years, analyzes Bank of America in a note published on Tuesday, which estimates that “by 2027, sales of electric vehicles might open a significant breach in the oil demand”.
