Global Market Reviews: Lunar New Year Impacts and Predictions for the Week Ahead

2024-02-12 19:34:40

Several Asian stock exchanges are closed for the Lunar New Year festivities. (AP Photo/Andy Wong)

MARKET REVIEWS. Global markets rose Monday morning, after a quiet session in Asia where most markets were closed for Lunar New Year festivities.

Stock market indices at 7:30 a.m.

London was stable at the start of the session in Europe, but Frankfurt et Paris advanced by 0.4%.

In New York, before the markets opened, the average Dow Jones industrial stocks rose by 0.1% and the broader index S&P 500 was stable.

In Asia, the S&P/ASX 200 Australia lost 0.4% and the Sensex if 0,6% The Thai SET added less than 0.1% and the Indonesian stock market 0,9%.

On the New York Commodity Exchange, the price of oil dropped 51 US cents to US$76.33 per barrel.

The context

“Markets remain focused on the date when central banks will start reducing their rates,” comments Neil Wilson, analyst at Finalto. “This gives a lot of importance to Tuesday’s US inflation data,” he adds.

The main macroeconomic event of the week will indeed be the publication on Tuesday of the January consumer price index in the United States.

Inflation has slowed significantly in recent months, which should prompt the US central bank to lower its rates according to investors, who expect several cuts this year starting in May.

But central bankers have tried to curb market optimism by pointing out that there are risks of inflation resuming if rates are lowered too soon.

“Data is essential for the Federal Reserve’s decision regarding the date of rate reduction,” underlines Neil Wilson, recalling that the markets have almost abandoned the idea of ​​a rate cut in March and are instead counting on May now, “It is possible that the Fed will wait even longer,” he warns.

On the bond market, interest rates on sovereign debt are falling slightly. The yield on Germany’s ten-year bond stood at 2.34%, compared to 2.38% at Friday’s close.

Corporate results publications continue this week with Michelin on Monday, Coca-Cola and TUI on Tuesday, Sony, Capgemini and Heineken on Wednesday. Thursday will be a busy day especially for the Paris Stock Exchange, with seven CAC 40 companies presenting their quarterly and annual accounts.

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Tod’s could leave the stock market

The L Catterton investment fund, with which the world number one luxury company LVMH and its boss Bernard Arnault are associated, will launch a friendly takeover bid for the Italian fashion group Tod’s aimed at removing it from the Milan Stock Exchange.

In agreement with the Della Valle family, the main shareholder of Tod’s, L Catterton is planning a takeover bid aimed at acquiring 36% of the capital at a price of 43 euros per share, or a maximum amount of 512.2 million euros.

In Milan, the group’s shares climbed 18.10% to reach 42.94 euros, thus getting closer to the offer price.

Record profit for Galp Energia

The Portuguese oil and gas group Galp Energia posted a record profit in 2023, at one billion euros, up 14% compared to the previous year. Its action reacted moderately: +0.31% to 14.43 euros.

Oil in decline

Oil prices are falling. The price of a barrel of Brent from the North Sea, for delivery in April, fell 1.07% to 81.31 US dollars.

Its American equivalent, a barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI), for delivery in March, fell 1.30% to 75.85 US dollars.

On the foreign exchange market, the euro lost 0.13% against the dollar, at 1.0770 US dollars per euro.

Bitcoin was almost stable (-0.27%) at 48,005 US dollars.

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