2024-01-19 06:52:11
Published19. January 2024, 07:52
United States, Russia, EU…: Half the planet affected by elections in 2024
Some 49% of the world’s population is affected by elections in 2024. Overview of those that will mark the year.
This 60th American presidential election will probably feel like déjà vu, with an expected return match between outgoing Democratic President Joe Biden, 81, and his Republican predecessor, Donald Trump, 77.
AFP
These elections will take place in a troubled international context, with the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and the war between Hamas and Israel. They are subject to a risk, more or less significant depending on the country, of disinformation as well as manipulation linked to artificial intelligence (AI), according to observers. Here’s a roundup of the most notable elections:
United States: the return match?
On November 5, tens of millions of Americans will go to the polls to designate their “electors”, responsible for choosing the tenant of the White House. This 60th American presidential election will probably feel like déjà vu, with an expected return match between outgoing Democratic President Joe Biden, 81, and his Republican predecessor, Donald Trump, 77.
The latter took a giant step toward the Republican nomination, with a landslide victory in the Iowa primary on January 15.
This possible shock of veterans will be scrutinized following the controversies and false information surrounding the 2020 presidential election. Trump has never acknowledged his defeat and a certain number of Americans believe that the vote was “stolen” from them.
Russia: the opposition muzzled
Unsurprisingly, Vladimir Putin announced on December 8 that he was a candidate to succeed him in the presidential election in March. The man who has ruled Russia for 23 years had the Constitution amended in 2020. Which theoretically authorizes him to remain in power until 2036 and would make him overtake Joseph Stalin in terms of longevity in the Kremlin.
In recent years, the Russian opposition and civil society have been muzzled once morest the backdrop of the conflict in Ukraine: the main political opponents are either exiled or imprisoned, like Alexeï Navalny, the number one enemy of the Kremlin, recently transferred to a colony remote Arctic penitentiary; others died or were physically silenced.
India: nearly a billion voters
Some 945 million Indians are called to the polls in May for general elections in this country which will become the most populous in the world in 2023, ahead of China.
The BJP, the party of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, in office since 2014, is widely seen as the winner in the polls, its nationalism appealing to the Hindu majority. This election will take place in a context of regression in political rights and civil liberties, according to the NGO Freedom House. Led by Rahul Gandhi, the Congress party, once the dominant force now weakened, has attempted to form a grand coalition with disparate regional opposition parties to challenge Mr. Modi.
EU: giant transnational vote
More than 400 million voters from 27 European countries are called upon to nominate, at the beginning of June, 720 MEPs, during a giant transnational ballot. It might be marked by a new surge in Eurosceptic forces, as evidenced by the triumph of the Islamophobic far-right party PVV in the Dutch legislative elections.
This election will take place at a time when immigration is the subject of heated debates in several countries of the Union and when Europeans’ wallets have been hit hard by inflation.
Mexico: female shock
A woman might for the first time become, in June, president of Mexico, an important symbol in this country which records thousands of feminicides per year. Two women are favorites to succeed Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador: the former mayor of Mexico City Claudia Sheinbaum, from the ruling Morena party (left), well ahead in the polls, and senator Xochitl Galvez, for a Front bringing together three parties of opposition.
Iran: 18 months following the death of Mahsa Amini
Legislative elections will be held on March 1 in Iran, eighteen months following the death of Mahsa Amini. The death of this young Kurd, following her arrest by the police for an ill-fitting veil, triggered months of massive demonstrations once morest political and religious leaders. A movement harshly repressed, with hundreds of deaths and thousands of arrests.
The previous 2020 election was marked by the massive disqualification of reformist and moderate candidates, virtually reducing the election to a competition between conservatives and ultraconservatives.
Senegal: election under tension?
While around ten presidential elections are planned for 2024 in Africa, the scene of eight coups d’état in three years, the election in Senegal, scheduled for February 25, might experience tensions. President Macky Sall, in power since 2012, appointed his Prime Minister Amadou Ba as his camp’s candidate in September, a choice contested internally.
The Constitutional Council published a provisional list of 21 candidates in mid-January. On the opposition side, Ousmane Sonko, third in the 2019 presidential election, is absent, as expected. Imprisoned since July, for “calling for insurrection”, this opponent is the central figure in a standoff lasting more than two years with the State, which gave rise to several episodes of deadly unrest.
Venezuela: will the opposition be able to challenge the Chavista regime?
In Venezuela, entangled in a serious political and economic crisis which has pushed more than seven million people into exile, the socialist Nicolas Maduro, successor to Hugo Chavez (1999-2013), is a candidate for a third term in the second semester 2024, although he has not yet confirmed it. His re-election in 2018, widely considered fraudulent, was not recognized by many countries including the United States.
A large part of the opposition, long divided, united behind the liberal Maria Corina Machado despite her ineligibility. The United States, which in October eased for six months an oil embargo on Venezuela, holder of the world’s largest reserves of black gold, is calling for the lifting of the ineligibility of opponents, including that of Maria Corina Machado.
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