2024-01-04 12:14:06
Around 11:10 a.m. GMT (12:10 p.m. CET), the greenback fell once morest the single European currency, which gained 0.29% to 1.0954 dollars per euro, and fell once morest the British currency, up 0.32% to 1.2706 dollars to the pound.
“The publication of American economic statistics might “suggest that the economic growth of the world’s largest economy is deteriorating more quickly than expected,” summarizes John Plassard, analyst at Mirabaud.
On Wednesday, the minutes of the last Fed meeting on December 12 and 13, which took a cautious tone on the evolution of inflation, briefly caused the dollar to rise.
But at the end of this meeting, Fed President Jerome Powell indicated that members of the monetary policy committee had discussed a timetable for cuts in key interest rates.
The JOLTS survey of the Department of Labor on job vacancies in the United States also showed on Wednesday that the number of job offers decreased by 62,000 compared to the previous month to reach 8.79 million in November.
This drop in job offers in the United States, already in decline in October, “testifies to the continued easing of labor market conditions,” indicates Mr. Plassard.
For its part, the PMI index which reflects manufacturing activity in the United States, published on Wednesday, improved slightly, going from 46.7 in November to 47.4 in December 2023.
However, “this figure indicates a contraction in industrial activity for the 14th consecutive month,” adds the Mirabaud analyst. Indeed, a figure above 50 shows growth in activity, while a figure below indicates contraction.
The pound performed particularly well once morest the dollar, following the increase in the British composite PMI index, to 52.10 points in December compared to 50.70 in November, and the PMI index relating to services also increased. increased over the same period.
“A recent series of composite PMIs above the 50 mark (…) suggests that the economy may have regained some momentum at the end of the fourth quarter,” says Martin Beck, economist at EY Item Club.
He noted, however, that “inflation has slowed faster than expected” in the UK, further supporting investors’ expectations that the Bank of England will cut its key rate this year.
For its part, the yen fell by 0.59% once morest the dollar, to 144.15 yen, and by 0.89% once morest the euro, to 157.91 yen.
In central Japan, nearly 80 people were still missing on Thursday, three days following the powerful New Year’s earthquake which left 84 dead according to a provisional toll, and devastated buildings and roads.
However, this “recent devastating earthquake makes it more difficult for the Bank of Japan to imminently exit the realm of negative interest rates”, which is weighing down the Japanese currency, according to Deutsche Bank analysts.
Analysts indeed expect that the Japanese central bank will not drastically change its policy at this time when support for its economy is proving crucial.
Thursday lessons Wednesday lessons
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11:10 GMT 10:00 PM GMT
EUR/USD 1,0954 1,0922
EUR/JPY 157.91 156.50
EUR/CHF 0.9314 0.9273
EUR/GBP 0,8621 0,8623
USD/JPY 144,15 143,29
USD/CHF 0,8503 0,8491
GBP/USD 1,2706 1,2665
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