2023-11-21 23:10:00
Global corn production forecasts for the year have been revised upwards. A trend which reassures the market and pushes prices down, on the international market, but also on the African continent.
Between its October and November assessments, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), whose monthly statistics are the reference, revised corn production upwards by six million tonnes. If this is confirmed, the total harvest might increase by more than 5% this year compared to last year.
This reassessment concerns in particular the harvests in Ukraine and Russia, knowing that the American harvest which is ending is also welcomed and shows good yields. However, the United States and Brazil are the two exporters that count on the corn market.
A more generous offer
Over the past two years, production in these countries has, in turn, been more reduced than expected. The rebound observed today therefore logically increases the volumes of corn available for marketing.
« Global supply appears, at this stage, sufficient to meet the still very strong demand from the main buyer, China. », underlines Damien Vercambre of the Intercourtage firm. And when supply is adapted to demand, sources of stress decrease on the markets, with a direct impact on prices.
Their current decline is also due to Brazil which practices a very aggressive pricing policy, in particular because the country does not have enough storage infrastructure and it must export its production as quickly as possible.
Among the reasons contributing to the easing, there are also global corn stocks: according to the USDA, they might increase by 5% this year.
Fall in prices in West Africa
This tendency to see softer prices on the international market should be accompanied in the coming months by a drop also on African markets, according to the agricultural analysis bulletin N’Kalo. Thanks to above-normal rains during the winter, production is expected to be rather good in Togo, Senegal, Guinea and Mali. Good news for consumers. But also a good reason for producers to quickly sell their stock, according to N’Kalo, before prices fall further.
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