2023-11-15 19:07:43
The comfortable supply of soft wheat works in favor of the stability of world cereal prices, while soybean prices are rising, supported by a persistent drought in west-central Brazil.
On the Chicago Stock Exchange on Tuesday, “soybeans closed higher as drought continues in central and northern Brazil. The weekly export sales report [aux États-Unis] was strong and strong sales were reported towards the Chine says Jack Scoville of Price Futures Group.
Since November 8, reports from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) show sales of more than 1.6 million tons of soybeans to China and more than 1 million tons to “unknown” destinations. .
The tension is all the greater as Brazil, the world’s leading producer and exporter of soybeans, is in the middle of the sowing period. However, the most important production region, Mato Grosso (central-west), has been suffering for several weeks from strong heat and a worrying lack of rain, explains Damien Vercambre, of the brokerage firm Inter-Courtage.
Read: Sowing conditions in Brazil remain critical
At the same time, he adds, in the state of Parana (south), it is excess rain that slows down sowing.
“In Brazil, delays in soybean sowing will lead to delays in sowing corn for off-season », the second and largest harvest of yellow grain in Brazil, sown in the wake of the oilseed harvest, notes Sébastien Poncelet, analyst at Agritel (Argus Media group).
“This explains the relative resistance of corn on the market while the USDA has revised upwards global production estimates,” he believes.
However, the cereal market is changing little, in the absence of major developments both on trade and on the geopolitical front.
On the European market, wheat prices have remained in a range between between 230 and 240 euros per tonne on the most traded maturity.
This Wednesday, wheat continued its decline towards €230/t
“The euro has strengthened against the dollar, which further penalizes European exports, still largely in competition with wheat from the Black Sea”, whether it comes from Russia, Ukraine or Romania and Bulgaria, notes Mr. Poncelet.
” The feet in water “
The price gap between Russian and French wheat was still more than 20 dollars at the start of the week.
“In recent weeks, Algeria has bought a lot of wheat and apparently not from French. Morocco buys less French wheat than last year. There is a loss of outlet in North Africa », noted the Agritel analyst.
On Euronext, where prices were trending downward on Wednesday, prices found support in the reluctance of sellers. “Producers don’t sell. Retention on the sellers’ side makes it possible to maintain this threshold of 230 euros (per tonne of wheat). Below, we reach critical levels in relation to production costs (with inputs purchased more expensively),” he explains.
Furthermore, “demand for American wheat was weak, as the production russe seems strong,” notes Jack Scoville, after the USDA raised its production forecasts for Russia to 90 million tonnes for the current campaign.
On the subject: The USDA significantly raises its Russian harvest estimate
Despite an expected drop in production in India and Argentina, the slight decline in global wheat production is offset by abundant stocks.
In Europe and in particular in France, the leading European producer of wheat, the consequences of recent stormsincluding thousands of hectares flooded, are monitored.
In France, according to the services of the Ministry of Agriculture, soft wheat sowings were 67% complete as of November 6, compared to 91% on the same date last year.
Read also: “An inevitable drop in winter wheat and barley areas” for 2023/2024
“This is the same level as in 2019 when we lost 600,000 hectares of wheat after floods, a loss of more than 4 million tonnes,” notes Sébastien Poncelet.
Assessing the damage will take time, underlines Damien Vercambre. “It will take weeks to see thesoil moisture small enough to move machines through the fields for sowing.” Some wheat or barley that has already grown will not withstand weeks “with its feet in the water”.
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