Germany Second League Relegation Check: Hansa Rostock, Eintracht Braunschweig, and VfL Osnabrück

2024-01-17 23:24:40

As of: January 17, 2024 9:19 a.m

According to GSN’s calculation, Hansa Rostock, Eintracht Braunschweig and VfL Osnabrück are the relegated teams in the 2nd league. At least one person still has the chance to stay in the league in the relegation. The relegation check.

by Florian Neuhauss

The three northern clubs have already pulled the proverbial ripcord: starting with Daniel Scherning in Braunschweig, via Uwe Koschinat in Osnabrück and most recently with Mersad Selimbegovic in Rostock, coaches have already been changed everywhere. And when you look at the table, that’s not surprising.

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Hansa has 17 goals and 17 points after 17 games and is in the relegation zone at half time. The fact that Braunschweig “already” has 14 points is due to the two victories under Scherning in the last games before the winter break.

And even though Koschinat has led his new team to notable draws against leaders St. Pauli and the resurgent Berlin after the bitter opening defeat at Schalke (0:4), only nine points have been recorded in Osnabrück so far. NDR.de takes a close look at the three northern clubs in the relegation check.

Hansa Rostock

Hansa’s hope is Selimbegovic, who was only introduced as the new helmsman on the “Kogge” during the Christmas break. And the “original Regensburg” has taken over a major construction site: no team has scored so few goals from the game (0.35 per game). And there are profound reasons for this: there were only six assists on goal on average. This is just as much a negative league value as the 315 passes played and the pass rate of 78.10 percent.

1.12 attacks per game after counterattacks with a goal finish (second best value in the league.)

0.90 expected goals created by the middle per 90 minutes (3rd)

the strikers intercepted an average of 3.59 passes from the opponent (1st)

Even the duels – actually Rostock’s core competence – were very bad: only 45.69 percent of the duels were won. And things get really bitter with 34.86 percent of duels on the ground being won on offense. At the same time, the opponents achieved 2.14 expected goals per game. Here too, Hansa is weaker than any other club.

To counteract all of this, the Rostock team definitely needs more goal threat and more creativity in the offensive area. More duel and heading strength, but also passing security. However, the squad would also benefit from a more defensive right-back or a “rail player” as well as a clearer on the six. However, there have been no new additions yet.

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Eintracht Braunschweig

New coach Scherning has already given the “Lions” hope back. Nine points from his first five games are definitely impressive. And the score of nine goals is also impressive, considering only seven goals in the twelve games before the 40-year-old took over BTSV.

With Niklas Tauer on loan from Mainz there is already a new player. The 22-year-old is a ball-winner in midfield and knows something about his work: his GSN index of 59.29 shows him to be a good second division player. However, there are actually other construction sites in the squad.

a total of 50.48 percent and 63.32 percent of ground tackles on defense (1st each)

90 ball conquests per 90 minutes (2nd)

An average of 16 passes intercepted by own defenders (2nd)

218.88 sprints per game (3rd)

What is particularly glaring is the team’s standard weakness. Eintracht only scored two goals from set pieces in the first half of the season – league minus. Not a single (!) direct free kick from Braunschweig actually hit the opponent’s goal. In any case, only 21.42 percent of the team’s shots actually became a task for the goalkeepers.

Here, too, the problems begin a step earlier: only 69 percent of the passes forward ended up with the teammate, and the number of passes into the final third was only 61 percent – no other team is that bad.

The squad would benefit greatly from a second, goal-scoring striker alongside Anthony Ujah, who missed large parts of the first half of the season with an injury. And instead of Tauer’s ball-winning qualities, he would have needed more of a goal threat, a creative and offensive-minded style of play and skills on the stationary ball.

But: The young man from Mainz is already facing three departures. Tauer should not and should not have been the last newcomer.

VfL Osnabrück

With its nine points, VfL is in very bad company. In this millennium, seven clubs had only scored single digits in the first half of the season – and all of them were relegated more or less quietly at the end of the season. The fact that the Osnabrück team have already signed two new players, Athanasios Androutsos and Lex Tyger Lobinger, shows that they don’t just want to surrender to their fate.

After the departure of right-back Omar Traoré to Bundesliga promoted Heidenheim, there was a huge gap on the right side – offensively and defensively. Androutsos (GSN index 56.23) should and could now close this. The Greek is fast, creative, excels with his passing game and can cross well.

Lobinger, who has only scored two goals in his 46 second division appearances, is hardly the strong striker that VfL needs.

2.75 shots by own defenders (2nd)

6.25 passes received into the opponent’s 16 by own defenders (3rd)

22.31 shots from free balls in the opponent’s half (1st)

47.69 intercepted balls (3rd)

In the first half of the season, the Osnabrück team only had a rate of 21 percent of their shots that actually went on goal. With 1.10 expected goals per game, the purple-whites are at the bottom of the league. It’s less strange than almost sad to see that the Lower Saxony team only managed to score four times per 90 minutes from free play. VfL didn’t score a single goal after counterattacks. In fact, no team has played slower than Osnabrück in the games so far.

After the first half of the 2018/2019 season, FC Ingolstadt only got ten points, but then added four (top-class) new signings in the winter, saved themselves from relegation with a further 25 points and ultimately celebrated staying in the league.

To make a similar miracle conceivable, you would actually need not only a goalscorer but also a playmaker who can set the pace and create chances. Ideally a good set-piece shooter, plus fast, dribbling wide players – and so on. However, when he took office, Koschinat emphasized that the team had enough potential to stay in the league.

The forecast for the second half of the season

With the help of artificial intelligence, GSN calculated the further course of the season. As things stand, the three teams would neither gain nor lose a place. Accordingly, Braunschweig and Osnabrück would be relegated. With a relegation probability of 70 percent, the data paints a dark picture for VfL. At 67 percent, things don’t look much better for Eintracht. At Hansa it’s practically a 50:50 chance. With a seven point gap to the saving bank (15th place) in the calculated final table, Hansa would only have the chance of relegation.

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