The indicator continues its rise that began in November, following four consecutive months of plunge in the face of soaring inflation.
German consumer sentiment should improve in January for the third month in a row amid government aid against inflation and more moderate energy prices, according to the GFK barometer published on Wednesday.
The institute forecasts an index at -37.8 points, up 2.3 points over one month, he said in a press release.
The indicator continues its rise that began in November, following four consecutive months of plunge in the face of soaring inflation.
“The light at the end of the tunnel is becoming a little more visible,” comments GfK expert Rolf Bürkl in this press release.
The announcements of a massive plan of 200 billion euros by the German government to cushion the explosion of energy costs “are having their effect”, he continues.
As proof, the component of the index measuring income expectations has improved for the third month in a row.
Similarly, inflation fell in November in Germany, to 10.0% for the first time since June thanks to a slowdown in the surge in energy prices.
But overall the recovery of consumer confidence remains “fragile” and its evolution will depend on the geopolitical situation, warns Mr. Bürkl.
Similarly, consumer purchase intentions are stabilizing at a low level, a sign of restraint which is exercised even during the Christmas shopping period.
Some 2,000 people polled in early December finally expect a recession in the coming year.
However, it risks being shallower than feared so far, according to several economic institutes (IFO, IfW) which recently revised their GDP forecasts for 2023 upwards.