German exporters are not expecting big leaps in the coming year because of the problems with their most important customers, the USA and China. “Exports will not slump in 2023, but we cannot expect a boom either,” Dirk Jandura, President of the Federal Association of Wholesale, Foreign Trade, Services (BGA), said in an interview with the Archyde.com news agency. “It would be a success if we actually managed to break even.”
The BGA is particularly worried regarding China. Turning away from the zero-Covid policy will help in the medium term, but initially the sick leave threatens to go through the roof. “If there were a large wave of infections, China would weaken economically,” said Jandura. “I fear the worst if the pandemic hits as feared.” According to experts, there is a risk of a gigantic corona wave with hundreds of millions of infected people in the People’s Republic within weeks – and millions of deaths.
For other reasons, the association looks uneasily at the United States. “We’re also worried regarding the United States,” said Jandura. “We have a stronger euro once more due to the ECB interest rate hikes. This is not exactly boosting exports.” The interest rates, which have risen even more sharply in the USA, are already having an impact there, especially on the construction sector.
The exporters, on the other hand, are encouraged by the overall good order situation. “Many companies have quite large order backlogs that might not be processed in the past few months due to material shortages,” said Jandura.
