Annalena Baerbock enters the lion’s den. In office for five weeks, the new German Foreign Minister has two complex visits, first to Ukraine where she went on Monday January 17, and to Russia, where she arrives on Tuesday January 18.
The young environmental minister knows that she is scrutinized, while the situation between these two countries is, by her own admission, “highly dangerous” since Moscow positioned troops on the Ukrainian border. “We are very worried”, she noted during her press conference with her counterpart Dmytro Kouleba in Kiev.
Solidarity with Kiev, dialogue with Moscow
On the spot, while Germany and Ukraine were celebrating the 30th anniversary of the resumption of their diplomatic relations on Monday, Annalena Baerbock recalled the position of her country and the European Union, between “solidarity with Kyiv” and dialogue with Moscow. “The territorial integrity of Ukraine is not negotiable”, she insisted, adding that “any new aggression would be expensive”.
Despite “very distant differences of opinion with Russia”, she also ensures that her country and the Europeans have ” endurance “ in terms of diplomacy and pleaded for a relaunch of the so-called Normandy format, between Russia, Ukraine, France and Germany. Annalena Baerbock and her French counterpart Jean Yves Le Drian will soon travel to Kiev together.
→ ANALYSIS. Between Washington and Moscow, Ukraine wants to have a say in its security
Unsurprisingly, however, the German minister has dampened the expectations of her Ukrainian hosts who are pleading for a change in Berlin’s position on arms delivery. The new coalition – made up of social democrats, environmentalists and liberals – maintains the tradition of refusing to supply arms to countries in conflict. If Dmytro Kouleba played down the issue a few hours earlier, the Ukrainian ambassador in Berlin had been more critical: “People in Ukraine are extremely disappointed”, noted Andrij Melnyk.
United by the ties of the pipeline
The other burning issue concerns the Nord Stream II gas pipeline which connects Russia and Germany bypassing Ukraine. Completed but not yet commissioned, this infrastructure project is criticized by Kiev, Washington and divides Europe as well as the German coalition itself.
The Social Democrats of Chancellor Olaf Scholz see it as a simple private infrastructure project, not to be used as a means of pressure on Moscow. The Greens have been criticizing this project since its launch. Proof of this tension, Annalena Baerbock kicked into touch this Monday, in Kiev, recalling that this gas pipeline does not yet meet the legal conditions to enter into service. “Only an aggression of Ukraine by Russia might force Berlin to stop this pipeline”, says Stefan Meister, from the DGAP center in Berlin.
→ MAINTENANCE. Nord Stream: “Germany will become an energy hub but is increasing its dependence on Russian gas”
In the meantime, Annalena Baerbock favors diplomacy. A very delicate step awaits this very young minister this Tuesday in Moscow for her first official meeting with Sergei Lavrov, at the head of Russian diplomacy since 2004. “They will get to know each other and test themselves”, young Stefan Meister.
“Mr. Lavrov will make Mrs. Baerbock understand that he does not take her seriously. Mrs. Baerbock, she will hold her line and insist on human rights, international law, multilateralism. But there will be nothing to negotiate,” believes this expert. According to him, Russia currently sees only one interlocutor worthy of the name: the United States.
.
