A popular scene in scary movies is where the monster you thought had been killed raises its head once more and snaps. For a moment, the viewer doesn’t know whether this is just one last rearing of the beast – or whether it won’t triumph in the end.
Which would take you to Donald Trump, the Republicans, and the US state of Georgia. It’s debatable who plays the monster in the horror film that the once-proud Conservative Party has been showing for the past several years. But there’s no denying that in the Republican primary in Georgia, something that had long since been declared dead lifted its head and snapped. You might call it “the party establishment”.
On Tuesday there were primaries once more in the USA – the parties decided internally with which candidates they will run in the congressional and gubernatorial elections in November. Voting took place in several states, but the most important race was held in Georgia. There, incumbent Republican Governor Brian Kemp had to defend himself once morest former Republican Senator David Perdue, who wanted to contest his gubernatorial candidacy.
Trump supported him, he still lost the area code: David Perdue.
(Photo: Jenni Girtman/AP)
That would not be remarkable in and of itself if Donald Trump had not put a lot of energy and money into Perdue. Trump, in turn, wanted to take revenge on Kemp, whom he accuses of lack of support in the 2020 presidential election. Trump had lost in Georgia at the time. But instead of parroting Trump’s lies regarding electoral fraud, Kemp had opposed the then president and confirmed the legitimacy of the result. Since then, Trump has been seething with anger, and he had recruited Perdue to snatch the candidacy – and thus the office – from Kemp.
However, this plan failed miserably on Tuesday. Kemp not only won the primary as expected. Instead, he won by such a large margin – around 50 percentage points – that the result was almost a humiliation for Perdue and Trump: Trump had asked Republican voters in Georgia to vote for Perdue. They voted for Kemp, and in droves. Georgia Interior Secretary Brad Raffensperger, in charge of elections, who incurred Trump’s wrath in 2020, was also on course for victory in his primary on Tuesday night.
For many in the establishment, it is not Trump’s positions that are the problem, but his style
The Georgia election will fuel the underlying power struggle that has been raging among Republicans for months. The core question is what role Trump should play in the party – and how much power he actually still has over the party. Because while normal party supporters still worship the former president, there are many in the Republican leadership circles who want Trump to retire as soon as possible. This part of the party has less of a problem with Trump’s political positions and rather fears that his erratic, divisive manner and obsessive talk of stolen victory will reduce the party’s electoral chances. After all, the Republicans lost the House of Representatives in 2018 and the White House and Senate in 2020 because of Trump. This should not be repeated, not in the congressional elections this November, and certainly not in the 2024 presidential election.
For months, Republican party leaders – the “establishment” so despised by Trump and his followers – have been trying to push the former president aside and make room for a new leader. There are a number of ambitious Republicans who dare to take on this task, with Florida Governor Ron DeSantis probably having the best chance. He is a hard right-wing populist, but without Trump’s toxic ballast such as sex affairs and racism. Above all, unlike the previous president, DeSantis cannot be accused of instigating an attempted coup once morest the American Parliament in order to remain in power despite losing an election.
Trump sees that there is a movement once morest him in the party. And he fights back by supporting candidates who are on his side in primaries. This worked very well in Ohio a few weeks ago when he helped underdog JD Vance win. In Georgia, however, Trump’s counterattack with Perdue has now come to nothing.
How much can one learn from Georgia regarding the balance of power in the party?
If you look at who campaigned for Kemp, you can see pretty well where the fronts are in the party. For example, former Trump confidante Chris Christie and former Vice President Mike Pence performed with Kemp. Both come from the old power structure of the party, both are former governors who sided with Trump in 2016 out of political opportunism but now want to get rid of him because they see what he is doing in America. It is astonishing that these representatives of the establishment, who were downright crushed by Trump in the 2016 primary campaign, are now daring to break up and revolt. That they were successful in Georgia is nothing short of spectacular.
What does all this mean for Trump’s position in the party? That is hard to say. On the one hand, it was extremely important for Trump personally to beat Kemp. His victory should hurt him a lot. On the other hand, governors are powerful regional princes who are difficult to dethrone. They have power, money and political connections in their state. It’s no coincidence that Trump-recommended candidates have done poorly in primaries where they’re looking to defeat incumbent governors, such as Idaho and Nebraska.
Georgia says only limited things regarding the true balance of power among the Republicans, whether the establishment is regarding to triumph over Trump or succumb to his power in 2016. Perhaps one can draw this conclusion: Trump is obviously controversial within the party, and his word is no longer automatically law among Republicans. But there are also very few party officials who would bet house and yard that Trump would lose the 2024 primary if he did run. In any case, when you travel in Republican America, you only ever see one name on flags and posters: Trump.