2023-12-03 08:31:50
Published on December 3, 2023 at 09:31. / Modified on December 3, 2023 at 09:32.
The weather associates with the The New Zurich Times as part of a series of articles devoted to investments and retirement planning.
The observation is not particularly empathetic and does not shine with its ethics either, but the recent conflict in the Middle East has so far only caused slight falls in prices on the financial markets. “This is unlikely to change as long as the conflict is limited to Israel and the Gaza Strip,” said Martin Eichler, chief economist at BAK Economics. History has shown that local geopolitical conflicts and other exogenous shocks cause only temporary declines in stock markets. Thus, following the attacks on the World Trade Center or the wars in Iraq and Libya, prices suffered a sudden but short-lived drop. Twelve months following these events, global key rates had already returned to positive growth.
Faced with the tense situation in the Middle East, economists therefore currently have only one concern: that linked to the price of oil. “So far, the situation in the Middle East has not spread to other countries, so the increase in oil prices has remained limited. As long as this situation persists, we do not expect significant consequences for the global economy,” says César Pérez Ruiz, Chief Investment Officer at Pictet Wealth Management. If the war between Israel and Hamas were to nevertheless degenerate and in particular extend to Iran, a country likely to possess atomic weapons, this might not only explode the price of the lubricant of the world economy, but also cause the global economy to plunge rapidly and violently. “An open war between several states would probably throw the world economy, already in bad shape, into a deep recession,” fears Martin Eichler of the BAK.
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