2023-12-23 10:13:17
Since 2022, the geography of international trade has remained relatively stable, without significant manifestations of relocation or refocusing. However, a notable increase in political proximity in trade relations has been observed since the end of 2022. This development suggests a shift towards bilateral partnerships favoring countries sharing similar geopolitical positions (friendly-trade relations). Concomitantly, an overall decrease in the diversification of trading partners highlights an increased concentration of global trade within major trading relationships and ongoing dynamics reveal increasingly concentrated and geopolitically oriented global trade. The war in Ukraine, sanctions against the Russian Federation and the rebalancing of trade relations between the United States and China play a significant role in the evolution of key bilateral trade trends. These factors exert an influence not only on the economies directly involved, but also indirectly impact the trade dynamics of other economies.
Over the past four quarters, global business trends have been overwhelmingly unfavorable for most industries. Annual data indicates that the decline in global trade is attributable to reduced trade in the office and communications equipment sectors, as well as textiles and clothing.
On the other hand, world trade benefits from positive dynamics in the road vehicle and transport equipment sectors. On a quarterly basis, most sectors recorded a decline in trade, although the clothing, communications and office equipment sectors rebounded from previous levels. However, commercial trends remain negative in many sectors such as agri-food, textiles, metals and minerals. While the positive trajectory observed in the trade of transport equipment and motor vehicles in the annual data saw a reversal in the third quarter of 2023.
But despite general declines, trade in clothing and communications equipment recorded a recovery in the third quarter of 2023.
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#Geopolitical #concentration #sectoral #fluctuations