2023-11-28 14:03:31
After the end of the current truce between Israel and Hamas, and a subsequent round of war, experts expected tougher negotiations than before regarding the Israeli soldiers detained by Hamas, and which it refused to negotiate with in the first truce agreement.
The lists of prisoners being exchanged between the movement and Israel did not include any Israeli soldier, and Israeli reports said that Hamas has now completely refused to negotiate their release. To be a decisive card in future negotiations.
The White House also said, Monday in a statement, that it believes there are regarding 10 Americans still detained in Gaza, a number that is not far from what was announced at the beginning of the fighting in Gaza on October 7. He said at the time that 10 to 15 Americans were detained there.
What will happen following the Gaza truce?
A political analyst and military expert explains to Sky News Arabia why Hamas refused to include military personnel in the ongoing prisoner exchange, and how it can exploit that, along with the American detainees, as a pressure card to reap major gains in the upcoming negotiations.
A new round with a long truce
Palestinian affairs researcher, Salah Jumaa, and Deputy Editor-in-Chief of the Middle East News Agency, Salah Jumaa, expect a new round of negotiations between Hamas and Israel that will be limited to soldiers.
He says that during the past negotiations regarding the truce, Israel pressed for the release of the soldiers, but the truce agreement came out regarding children and women. Hamas said that the principle of 3 Palestinian prisoners for one Israeli prisoner (on the basis of which the current exchange agreement was concluded) is completely unacceptable to the military.
He attributed Hamas’ position to the fact that it stipulates that Israeli prisons be cleaned of Palestinian prisoners as a condition for the soldiers to enter into the exchange agreement, while Tel Aviv expected that the pressure through its military operations might force the movement to accept the release of the soldiers, but this did not happen.
However, if negotiations regarding the soldiers take place, Jumaa believes that it will also result in a long truce, followed by a ceasefire, following which a conference will be held to discuss the situation in Gaza and ways to hold elections and integrate Gaza and the West Bank under one authority.
The Egyptian journalist concludes by saying, “The military prisoners card is a big card for Israel, and Hamas will certainly exploit it.”
Big concessions
For his part, military analyst, Jamal Al-Rifai, does not rule out that Tel Aviv will make concessions in these new negotiations regarding its military prisoners, telling “Sky News Arabia” that since the establishment of Israel, it has always strived during its wars to prevent its prisoners from remaining in the hands of its enemies, even if by offering “ Big concessions.”
He gives an example of the 2011 deal, when it agreed to release more than a thousand Palestinians in exchange for the Palestinians’ release of the captured soldier Gilad Shalit (with Egyptian mediation).
On this basis, Al-Rifai believes that Hamas “has a winning card now that may end the war and leave Israel defeated, which is the military detainees’ card, in addition to an equally important card, which is the Americans it detains, which makes it sit in the negotiating chair more comfortably.”
In turn, he expected that Hamas would request during the negotiations “a ceasefire, and to enter into a long truce, and it may require an Arab and international conference to reconstruct Gaza.”
At the same time, the military expert awaits the “inevitable” upcoming military confrontations between Israel and Hamas following the end of the current truce.
According to the Israeli army, Hamas kidnapped 240 Israelis and foreigners in its attack on Israeli settlements near the Gaza Strip on October 7.
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