Gas: European demand at its lowest, but a certain dependence on Russia persists

2024-02-22 12:18:28

“Gas consumption in Europe (EU + UK, Norway and Turkey) fell in 2023 to its lowest level in ten years, as countries step up energy efficiency measures and the deployment of renewable energy,” indicates the IEEFA (Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis) in its report published this Wednesday.

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More precisely, it fell to 452 billion cubic meters, below the consumption of 2014 (472 billion cubic meters), according to the study.

In the two years following the start of the Russian offensive in Ukraine, European demand “fell by 20%”. Europe sought to adapt after Russian pipeline shipments of hydrocarbons were shut down and turned more to liquefied natural gas (LNG), transported by ship.

In value terms, LNG sales to Europe for 2022 and 2023 amounted to more than €170 billion. In these two years, if the continent imported American LNG first (for 75.15 billion euros), Russia still came in second place (23.84 billion euros), closely followed by Qatar ( 23.80 billion euros).

“The European energy system is more diverse and resilient”

In volume, LNG sales “remained stable from one year to the next” between 2022 and 2023, underlines the IEEFA. From Russia, LNG deliveries to Europe increased by 11% between 2021 and 2023. They doubled to Spain, tripled to Belgium. France, despite a 35% decline in its imports of Russian LNG over the past year, remained the second largest importer of Russian LNG on the Old Continent.

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Two years after the start of the Russian offensive in Ukraine, “the European energy system is more diversified and resilient,” notes Ana-Maria Jaller-Makarewicz, analyst for IEEFA. She emphasizes that the adaptation efforts of European countries have enabled the continent to “continue to reduce its demand for gas”.

Consequence: global demand for LNG, the price of which skyrocketed after the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, could reach a “peak” as early as 2025, estimates the IEEFA. The organization emphasizes that, despite this, the European continent continues to increase its LNG storage capacities.

The utilization rate of EU LNG import terminals averaged 58.52% in 2023, according to IEEFA, compared to 62.94% in 2022.

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