2023-10-31 21:30:48
Middle East expert Muriel Asseburg sees four possible scenarios for the Gaza Strip. The most likely would lead to a “next wave of violence.”
31.10.2023 | 13:30 min
After the Hamas attack, in which, according to Israel, around 1,400 people were killed and 239 were kidnapped, Israel responded with attacks on the Gaza Strip. Thousands of Palestinians fled to the south of the region towards the Egyptian border. What the future holds for the Gaza Strip and the Palestinians living there is uncertain.
The Middle East expert Muriel Asseburg from the Science and Politics Foundation has in one Guest article in “ZEIT” Four possible scenarios for the future of the Gaza Strip are described. In an interview with ZDFheute live, she explains the scenarios and assesses which is the most likely.
Watch the interview in full in the video above or read it summarized here:
Asseburg sees possible scenarios for the Gaza Strip…
1. Return to the situation before the Hamas attack
The border would then be significantly more secure and the closure of the Gaza Strip would continue. Hamas would be significantly weakened, but would still exist. The terrorist organization is difficult for the Israeli army to defeat. It has many soldiers and is deeply rooted in parts of society. In the event of a complete closure, the people of Gaza would be completely dependent on humanitarian aid.
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In this scenario, the buffer zone along the border area in the north of the Gaza Strip would probably be significantly enlarged, explains Muriel Asseburg. “The fact that Palestinians would no longer live in this area and that they would no longer be able to farm there,” says the political scientist. As a result of the closure, food would no longer come into the Gaza Strip via Israel. There would be no more imports and exports. Workers from the Gaza Strip might no longer come to Israel.
2. Permanent displacement of hundreds of thousands of Gazans
Another scenario might be the permanent displacement of hundreds of thousands of people from the Gaza Strip. Many Palestinians who have already come to Gaza as refugees fear exactly that. After Israel’s request to flee a ground operation from the north of the coastal strip, makeshift tent camps have already been set up. Arab states like Egypt do not want to accept refugees – so where the people would go in this second scenario is uncertain.
Asseburg considers this scenario to be less realistic than the first.
But it is a scenario that Palestinians are very, very afraid of.
Muriel Asseburg, Foundation for Science and Politics They are so afraid of it, “because politicians in Israel are very strongly invoking this scenario in order to create fear,” explains the Middle East expert. “Members of the government and other politicians are talking regarding a Nakba, similar to the flight and expulsion of 1948.” There is only one direction in which the Palestinians might flee – across the border into Egypt, said Asseburg. “Egypt has made it very clear that it is not prepared to accept refugees from the Gaza Strip.” If the humanitarian situation worsens and there are further bombings, a mass rush to the Egyptian border is possible.
Then it would be very difficult for Cairo to use armed force to stop these people from fleeing to Egypt (…).
Muriel Asseburg, Middle East expert
Because the Palestinians in Egypt have few prospects, they might make their way to Europe.
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3. International troops ensure security in the Gaza Strip
In Asseburg’s third scenario, the UN Security Council would agree to “deploy a robust international force” to ensure order and security in the Gaza Strip. This would also lay the foundation for an international administration, a kind of trusteeship, to be set up as a transition for the return of the Palestinian Authority.
But the scenario is very unrealistic because the Security Council is currently very blocked and it is difficult to imagine that the USA on the one hand and Russia and China on the other hand might agree on such a mission, such troops and an international administration .
Muriel Asseburg, Middle East expert
4. Opening of the Gaza Strip under international security guarantees
The fourth scenario would be the opening of the Gaza Strip under regional and international security guarantees. In Asseburg’s view, this would require the creation of an alliance of regional states that would assume responsibility for the Gaza Strip. According to the expert, Egypt’s direct neighbor might not ensure peace in the region alone. In addition to Egypt, Saudi Arabia and other states that have normalized their relations with Israel would also have to become part of such an alliance. It is very important that the USA is also on board – as a security guarantor for Israel.
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It would then be a matter of finding an arrangement that takes into account the security of both Israel and the Palestinians in the Gaza Strip and enables the Gaza Strip to be opened up economically, Asseburg continued. “So the blockade of the Gaza Strip, which has been going on since 2006, has ended, making not only reconstruction possible, but also economic development.”
Which scenario is most likely?
Political scientist Asseburg fears that the first scenario is the most likely.
This is a scenario that will not provide stability, which will lead to the next wave of violence.
Muriel Asseburg, Science and Politics Foundation
That’s why she hopes “that the international community takes the fourth scenario, (…) although it is much more difficult to achieve, (…) seriously and says: This shock that we experienced on October 7th and this “The terrible images that are now reaching us from the Gaza Strip should be reason enough for us to finally sit down together and try to find a solution together – first for the Gaza Strip and then for the Palestine question as a whole.”
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