2023-06-30 11:00:00
A study by the firm of AlixPartner estimates that more than 600 billion dollars will be invested by manufacturers for the electric car in the years to come. However, there is no guarantee of return in the medium or even long term.
You may already be asking yourself the question: when will we finally be able to have affordable electric cars without having to appeal to States and public money? The answer, no one has. Volkswagen and Renault, however, are planning many electric cars at 25,000 or even 20,000 €. But these machines will have small batteries, and will ultimately offer nothing very revolutionary compared to current models. The constraint is always the same: a medium or high capacity battery is expensive. The price of the kWh of battery would have reached peaks lately according to our information, close to $200.
Thus, to have only one vehicle in the household and opt for electric, you have to put your hand in your pocket… or wait a few more years for a hypothetical technological breakthrough. Which may come from solid batteries, or any other form of chemistry. But in the meantime, customers are shutting down, or staying on hybrid or thermal. And the builders spend lavishly and without real visibility on the financial fallout.
For the Court of Auditors, Europe is not able to produce enough batteries
Invest billions, without certainty
Chinese brands are more aggressive and take more risks than Westerners, who are too wait-and-see and may bet too much on margins, and not enough on volumes© Nio
According to’AlixPartners studythe investments of car manufacturers around the world for the electric car will reach $616 billion between 2023 and 2027, compared to $330 billion between 2021 and 2025. In other words: the investments are exponential in the next five years. Amounts obviously unknown in the pre-Covid era, and even before dieselgate, the breaking point for diesel and thermal power in Europe. Since then, Brussels has set out to stop repeating the error and begins the hunt for fuel burners, potentially banned from concessions as early as 2035.
“Scale effects will remain beyond the reach of most manufacturers in the coming years, with the number of cars manufactured by type of platform remaining below what they know in thermal until 2030“, specifies AlixPartners. Doubt even remains regarding the ability of the non-Chinese automotive industry to manage to make all this profitable in the very long term. In other words: there might be breakage following 2030 for certain brands which might completely disappear.
“Chinese auto companies are set to become the driving force of the global auto industry in the coming years“, adds AlixPartners. The Chinese ogre is hungry, and its appetite is limitless. But time is running out for Western brands if they want to avoid invasion and above all to make huge investments profitable. For AlixPartners, the aggressive policy of the Chinese slices with attitude”too cautious” Europeans, Americans or Japanese.
Compare the real autonomy of the best electric cars according to our standardized measurement cycle. Battery capacity, consumption, autonomy, we tell you everything!
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