2024-03-12 21:18:16
The time has not yet come to draw up an overall assessment of the Covid19 pandemic and the measures taken to control it, because epidemiology is a slow science. It is likely that this assessment will not occur as long as those who orchestrated the media coverage and health policies survive. Thomas Kuhn showed that theories and concepts only disappear completely after the death of their masters.
Nevertheless, we can already say that mortality per million inhabitants was slightly higher than that of the 1957 flu and 20 times lower than that of the 1918 flu. If we consider the average age of deaths (approximately 80 years), the loss of years of life is lower than for the 1957 flu.
The effectiveness of the measures taken to control this epidemic (containment, school closures, wearing masks, hand disinfection) are very difficult to evaluate. It is likely that they spread mortality without reducing it overall in the first period. We will know better when we can carry out comparative studies between countries, studies which no institution seems willing to put in place. For the moment, Sweden, shown as a lax country, has suffered neither an explosion in its mortality nor a decline in its life expectancy in recent years.
As for vaccines, their very rapid availability probably benefited some of those who could have died during this second period. For the moment the most solid data on vaccination seem to confirm effectiveness on severe forms without reducing the circulation of the virus or the number of cases. On the other hand, after more than 13 billion doses administered worldwide, we have never had such a large database and no vaccine has ever been observed so closely. This allows us to state that adverse effects are extremely rare (myocarditis), but some may consider them excessive compared to an effectiveness of around 50%, which is low for a vaccine.
Furthermore, numerous studies have focused on morbidity and mortality, not linked directly to the virus, but to the measures taken to control it. These studies are often imbued with ideology, but by selecting those with an acceptable level of evidence, we can draw out some facts. A sedentary lifestyle has increased obesity rates, particularly among younger people. The consumption of psychotropic and illicit drugs has increased significantly, as has domestic violence. Studies on the effects of wearing masks in children are controversial and contradictory, the majority leaning towards harmful effects in the medium term. Only hand disinfection is popular and free of any adverse effects.
The most serious assessments of Covid will rather be the responsibility of sociologists or historians. This is the case with epidemiology.
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