2024-08-03 03:22:46
The first three months of 2024, Provincial National Accounts Revenue and Expenditure A strong contraction compared with the same period last year, the former collapse was accompanied by a sharp adjustment in spending.
Just at the beginning of the overall economic activity, the collection volume was well below the initial budget and fell by more than 50 points compared to the evolution of the cyclical price index.
The data comes from the budget execution status published on the provincial government website. These figures actually show that Martín Llaryora’s management began against the backdrop of an economic recession.
Revenues for the January-March cycle totaled $1,162.523 billion, up 232% from the same three months in 2023, but the inter-annual inflation rate (March-March) was 288.3%. The main reason is that state non-automatic transfers fell by 97%.
The joint participation of the municipalities ($167,702 million) must be deducted from this amount, leaving the provincial government with a net amount of $994,821 million.
In terms of net current expenditure during the period, it totaled $645.461 billion, which was an increase of 216% compared to the expenditure for the same period in 2023 and also below the rate of inflation.
Therefore, available demand savings are $349.36 billion.
If public works are included in expenditures of $102.044 billion (a 159% increase over the first three months of 2023 and therefore well below cumulative inflation), the financial result is $210.370 billion.
Is this result good or bad? In “El Panal” they explain it this way: “Even with the decline in revenue, we have an operational and financial surplus that is not available in provinces with similar production structures.”
Official sources said the biggest fiscal efforts were focused on “reducing the growth of current expenditures”, even if this meant a reduction in public sector activity.
Payroll and Public Works
Two messages also signal contraction. On the one hand, personnel expenses for the quarter were $298.857 billion ($109.477 billion in 2023), an increase of 173%, but much lower than the change in inflation. “The wage agreement reached with the unions takes into account half the evolution of inflation,” the government recalled, explaining the discrepancy.
Another program that saw a relative decline in spending was public works: $102.044 billion, a 159% budget increase. They anticipate at El Panal that this “picture” may be outdated for what’s to come, given the reversal of the second fall semester. The implementation results will be announced before September 30.
The La Liola government expects that “the full-year forecast includes maintaining investment levels and making qualitative changes to projects.”
The province also argued that not halting public works would benefit jobs. They also added that the national cumulative decline in April was 11.1% compared with December and 12.1% in May, which means that there were about 90,000 fewer active workers.
In Córdoba, the fourth month of the year saw a decrease of 7.4% compared to December and a decrease of 12.1% in May, which means that there were 368 fewer positions in these two months. According to Honeycomb’s accounts, the province’s declines were 33 to 39 per cent lower compared with the national level.
Another related figure for capital expenditures is the payment of the province’s contracted debt, which amounted to $54.826 billion in the quarter, paid for through placements.
As for the funding received by municipalities, $167.702 billion was received in the first three months of this year, representing an increase of 262%. They are the closest thing to inflation, if you will.
Cordoba’s debt approaches $1.7 billion
As of March 31, Córdoba’s investment and financing agency SEM calculated Córdoba’s debt to reach $1,689,450,906,736, although most of this was denominated in U.S. dollars because it was acquired from international institutions.
To determine this value, the update mechanism corresponding to the legal framework of each operation was taken into account and estimated in US dollars, the BNA currency selling exchange rate was 858 US dollars.
However, given that the province has already met its June deadline, this data is only a delayed reflection of the situation. The administration reflected a change in strategy, including the conversion of dollar bonds into peso debt. “We will go to the market to pay in pesos,” he insisted.
The government sees no credibility issues with the province’s data, which they say is confirmed by Premier Martín Lariola’s recent trip with Economy and Public Administration Minister Guillermo Acosta.
For all of 2024, the province faces $488 million in interest and capital maturities. It paid out $159 million in June, and a similar figure for December is pending. On the other hand, in July, it faced $11.54 million in interest due, and another $15.68 million in interest due.
For their part, the government has mutual funds convinced of the province’s fiscal soundness and will continue to bet on their proposals.
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