The peace process with the ELN was the only dialogue that the Petro Government could present to the country as a positive aspect of its total peace policy, But this reality crumbled this week when the guerrillas rejected a proposal from the Executive and demanded that it clarify its stance to the country.
The truth is that this dialogue has lacked clear rules from the outset, and in its eagerness to showcase results, the Petro Government granted many concessions to the guerrillas, who have adeptly used these to expand their presence throughout the national territory and bolster their military capacity. Since November 2022, when the dialogues commenced in Caracas, it has been unclear what specific issues would be negotiated, how they would be addressed, and especially how agreements would be implemented since it was decided that each agreement would take immediate effect.
The weakness of the Petro Government has been effectively exploited by this criminal group, which is now dictating the timeline for dialogue and daring to threaten the Colombian State with ultimatums and strict deadlines to determine whether a bilateral ceasefire will be reinstated.
Gustavo Petro and ELN troops. | Photo: Getty Images and AFP
Although Vera Grabe heads the delegation, the dialogue with the ELN and the coordination of the negotiations are managed through Iván Cepeda, who is working tirelessly to prevent the talks from collapsing. However, the reality is that while their commitment to peace is genuine, the guerrillas are exploiting this to maintain the status quo and await developments until 2026.
Perhaps that is why the Petro administration has conceded so many benefits. In agreement number 28 from May 24, 2024, it was stipulated that the delegations would reconsider the country’s economic model to “promote new sustainable and locally driven production models in which the State fulfills its social responsibility, that overcome inequality and the speculative and monopolistic model, enabling a transition toward a non-exploitative economic model,” as stated in point 3.2 of the agreement.
The ELN responded to Petro by stating that his “confidential” proposal was already agreed upon and that “the ELN simply needs to know if the Government will comply with what it signed.” While this may seem unbelievable, the guerrillas are correct, and the Petro Government has consented to discuss this issue. In the Havana talks with the now-defunct Farc-EP, the guerrilla group sought to negotiate the economic model, and Humberto de la Calle and Juan Manuel Santos promptly shut that option down. Although comparisons can be misleading, the door was opened for the ELN, and that is what they are insisting upon.
On May 24, 2024, this document was signed by the parties in Caracas (Venezuela), and the possibility of revising the Colombian economic model was established there. In June 2023, Gustavo Petro and Antonio García met in Cuba.
While the agreement indicates that the parties indeed reached consensus on the issue, Vera Grabe states that the Government is not violating any agreement and indicated that progress is being made in revising the Colombian economic model. “The government has always been open to dialogue and will maintain that stance, but the ELN must make decisions,” he expressed.
However, Cepeda clarifies that this issue will not be solely for the negotiators and must encompass a broad dialogue involving various sectors of society. “We will not negotiate in a closed forum about how to modify the economic model; rather, what is in the agreements is dialogue with social movements, business leaders, and other sectors to discuss it.”
But this is where matters become complicated, because the discussion itself does not necessitate a constitutional change to the economic model, and there are two avenues to achieve this: a constitutional reform or a national constituent assembly, issues on which both the government and the guerrillas have previously found common ground. Interestingly, in various circumstances, the ELN does not recognize the Colombian state, yet allows it to make alterations that suit its interests.
Iván Cepeda, Senator of the Republic. | Photo: juan carlos sierra-week
The ELN’s other demand is removal from the list of Organized Armed Groups, claiming there are commitments regarding this issue as well. WEEK has learned that this discussion already took place at the negotiating table, which is why the guerrillas refer to a breach, as a resolution was discussed but ultimately not signed. “Certainly, there is a resolution, but that was not discussed with the ELN. The president adopted it, and the ELN presented circumstances that seemed modifiable; we agreed to talk, but it was not an open discussion,” Cepeda admitted.
Cepeda clarified that the Petro administration will not abandon the peace talks and that the onus is now on the ELN, though the guerrillas only request compliance to progress further. Was the Executive wrong in providing so many concessions? Will they comply with the ELN? Will they offer more to keep this dialogue alive? These are questions that time will resolve, but the reality is that this dialogue will persist because if it breaks down, it would demonstrate that the total peace policy has failed.
Otty Patiño, peace commissioner. | Photo: Julian Mora
Peace Commissioner Otty Patiño informed Congress that there is a crisis that will be difficult to navigate. José Félix Lafaurie, the government negotiator, is proposing a “stop” to redirect the course and practically do what was not done from the beginning: establish clear rules and negotiate without contention.
The upcoming days will present substantial challenges for the Executive because there are signed documents, but the reality is that, without a national agreement or a constituent assembly, none of these matters can advance.
During his campaign, Petro pledged to achieve peace with the ELN within three months, but it is evident that he has failed to do so. Then, on June 9, 2023, he promised that the conflict between this guerrilla group and the Colombian State would end by May 2025, but all signs indicate that this, too, will be another unfulfilled promise, as the terms of negotiation are being dictated by the criminals.
Recent Developments in the ELN Peace Process: Analyzing the Petro Government’s Challenges
The peace process with the ELN was the only dialogue that the Petro Government could present to the country as positive within the policy of total peace. But that reality collapsed this week when the guerrillas slammed the door on a proposal from the Executive and asked it to tell the country what it was proposing.
The Unclear Framework of the Peace Negotiations
The reality is that this dialogue has not had clear rules from the beginning and the Petro Government, in its eagerness to show results, gave many favors to the guerrillas, who have known how to take advantage of them to expand throughout the national territory and strengthen themselves militarily. Since November 2022, when the dialogues were established in Caracas, it was not really clear what they were going to negotiate, how it would be done, and much less the way in which it would be implemented, because they agreed that each agreement would be put into effect immediately.
Weaknesses Exploited by the ELN
Precisely the weakness of the Petro Government has been perfectly interpreted by this criminal group, which today imposes the time frame for dialogue and dares to threaten the Colombian State with ultimatums and peremptory dates to decide whether the bilateral ceasefire will be resumed.
Negotiation Dynamics and Challenges
Although the head of the delegation is Vera Grabe, the dialogue with the ELN and the articulation of the table is maintained through Iván Cepeda, who are trying to do everything possible to avoid the breakdown of the talks. However, the truth is that although their will for peace is enormous, the guerrillas are taking advantage of it to maintain the status quo and wait to see what will happen in 2026.
Special Agreement Review
In agreement number 28 of May 24, 2024, it was established that the delegations would review the country’s economic model to promote new sustainable and own production models in which the State fulfills its social responsibility, overcoming inequality and the speculative and monopolistic model.
Conflicting Responses and Tensions
The ELN therefore responded to Petro that his “confidential” proposal had already been agreed upon and that “the ELN simply needs to know if the Government is going to comply with what it signed.” Although it may seem incredible, the guerrillas are right and the Petro Government agreed to discuss this matter. In the talks in Havana with the now defunct Farc-EP, the guerrilla group wanted to negotiate the economic model, but the then government leadership immediately closed that possibility.
Government’s Standpoint
Although the agreement shows that the parties did agree on the issue, Vera Grabe says that the Government is not in breach of any agreement and revealed that progress is being made in revising the Colombian economic model. “The government has always been open to dialogue and we will continue to take that position, but the ELN must make decisions,” he said.
Inclusive Dialogue Requirements
However, Cepeda clarifies that this issue will not be a matter for negotiators alone and must be part of a broad dialogue with different sectors of society. “We will not agree in a closed forum on how to modify the economic model, but what is in the agreements is a dialogue with the social movement, businessmen, and other sectors to discuss it.”
This discussion itself does not require a constitutional change to the economic model, and there are two ways to do so: a constitutional reform or a national constituent assembly, an issue on which both the government and the guerrillas have agreed at some point.
Demand for Demilitarization
The other demand of the ELN is the withdrawal from the list of Organized Armed Groups, another aspect on which they claim there are commitments. WEEK learned that this discussion had already taken place at the negotiating table and that is why the guerrillas speak of a breach because a resolution was socialized that was ultimately not signed. “Of course, there is a resolution, but that is not discussed with the ELN,” Cepeda acknowledged.
Future of Peace Talks
Despite the tensions, Cepeda clarified that the Petro government will not break the peace talks and that the ball is in the ELN’s court. The guerrillas are only asking that the government comply in order to move forward. Was the Executive wrong in offering so many benefits? Will they comply with the ELN? Will they give more to maintain this dialogue? These are questions that time will answer.
Political Insights
Peace Commissioner Otty Patiño told Congress that there is a crisis and that it will be difficult to overcome. José Félix Lafaurie, the government negotiator, is proposing a “stop” to straighten the path and establish clear rules for negotiation.
Challenges Ahead
The coming days will be quite complex for the Executive because there are signed documents, but without a national agreement or a constituent assembly, none of this will be able to move forward.
Unfulfilled Promises of the Petro Government
During his campaign, Petro promised that he would make peace with the ELN within three months, but it is clear that he failed to do so. Then, on June 9, 2023, he promised that the war between that guerrilla group and the Colombian State would end in May 2025, but it seems it will be another unfulfilled promise because the rules of the negotiation are being set by the criminals.
