French Unemployment Trends: Statistics, Analysis, and Government Response

2023-11-27 14:09:00

A small increase, but an increase nonetheless. In France, the number of job seekers registered in category A (without activity) increased very slightly in October compared to the previous month (+0.29%). Or 8,900 additional registrants to 3.030 million, according to figures from the Ministry of Labor published this Monday.

Unemployment insurance: the government will not approve the agreement signed by the social partners

Including reduced activity (categories B and C), the number of job seekers in France (excluding Mayotte) also increases by 0.29% (+15,800) and stands at 5.377 million, according to the employment service. Ministry statistics (Dares). The share of long-term job seekers (registered for a year or more) is 43.5%. As a reminder, Dares does not comment on monthly data, which is too volatile, favoring quarterly developments.

Uptrend

According to figures from INSEE – whose calculation method differs from Dares – published on November 15, in the third quarter of 2023 the unemployment rate recorded an increase of 0.6%, or 17,400 more people registered in the category. A, compared to the previous quarter, at 3.028 million. Including reduced activity (categories B and C of Pôle emploi), the number of job seekers was up slightly by 0.2% in the third quarter compared to the previous quarter, at 5.352 million. Unemployment therefore affected 7.4% of the active population in France (excluding Mayotte) in the third quarter, compared to 7.2% in the second.

Employment: the unemployment rate is increasing in France, penalized by the slowdown in the global economy

In addition, the number of unemployed, as defined by the International Labor Office (ILO), increased in France from 64,000 to 2.3 million people in the third quarter, the National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies also noted. . According to the latter, the French unemployment rate remained in October “ significantly below » from its peak in mid-2015 (-3.1 points).

Government procrastination

At the same time as the publication of these figures on Monday, the government announced that it was not going to approve, as it stands, the new unemployment insurance agreement resulting from an agreement reached between the social partners on November 10. Unheard of in years. This agreement provides for a decree to extend the current rules until June.

« The unemployment agreement will not be approved” and there will be a “joining decree until June “, indicated a union negotiator to the AFP. According to the Force Ouvrière negotiator, Michel Beaugas, the government is awaiting negotiations on seniors “ to be sure that there will be an agreement that includes the savings announced ».

In recent days, the general secretary of the CFDT, Marylise Léon, had affirmed on several occasions that the approval of the social partners’ agreement would be worth ” government confidence in social dialogue ”, seeing it as a choice “ policy ».

French growth at half mast

At the beginning of November, INSEE also confirmed the slowdown in French growth, to 0.1%, compared to +0.6% in the second quarter. The executive was quick to react to this bad figure. Bruno Le Maire thus praised a French economy which “ stands » in the third trimester.

Ensuring we have “ met its growth targets for 2023 », the Minister of the Economy Bruno Le Maire estimated in mid-November that the decline in inflation should allow the government to also achieve its objectives in 2024, currently within a range of 1.4 to 1, 6%.

(With AFP)

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