2023-08-08 04:07:11
After an “annus horribilis” marked by abysmal losses, French foreign trade is recovering. The deficit in the trade balance for goods in the first half of 2023 should drop below the 60 billion euro mark. “It would be around 56 billion euros”, according to a diplomatic source, while the figures will be officially revealed on Tuesday morning.
Even if this figure is still very high, it represents a clear improvement: in the second half of 2022, the “hole” amounted to 89 billion euros. It had thus reached 164 billion euros over the whole of the past year, weighed down by soaring prices on the energy markets linked to the Russian attack in Ukraine. Sign of the improvement, for three quarters, foreign trade has also come to the rescue of French GDP growth.
0.3 point increase in market share
Despite the slowdown in world trade and international tensions, French exports of goods increased in volume. They would also increase slightly in value. A first for a long time. At the end of the first quarter, France’s market share in world trade had thus improved by 0.3 points compared to the end of 2022, at 2.8%.
The amount of imports, on the other hand, fell, notably due to the fall in energy and raw material prices, following the surge in 2022.
And unsurprisingly, the recovery in the external accounts is largely due to the reduction in the energy bill in the first half of the year: the drop should be around 30 billion euros, according to these diplomatic sources, i.e. a bill almost halved compared to the second half of 2022 when it reached 65 billion euros.
In fact, over the period, oil and gas prices fell sharply. For example, the price of Brent, which averaged $112 in July 2022, fell to $74.8 on average in June 2023, its lowest level since the end of 2021. The appreciation of the euro once morest the dollar has also reduced the bill billed in greenbacks. Lastly, the efforts at moderation led to a fall in the volumes imported.
“The energy bill is still high. In normal times over a long period, it fluctuates between 25 and 30 billion euros”, tempers the same diplomatic source.
Nearly 20 billion surplus in services
An encouraging sign, the imbalance in trade in goods, excluding energy and military equipment, is also down compared to the previous half, but to a much more limited extent. The deficit would indeed remain above 30 billion euros but would be “less than 5 or 6 billion euros from what it was in the second part of last year”, according to this observer. However, it would remain significantly higher than before the health crisis.
Some sectors have improved their commercial performance compared to the previous half-year: this is the case of aeronautics, which generated a surplus of around 15 billion euros, with a rebound of 13% in sales abroad. Exports of perfumery and cosmetics also increased by 7% (9 billion euros surplus) as did those of the automotive sector driven by electric vehicles.
Conversely, the agricultural sector saw its surplus reduced from 5.7 billion euros to less than 3 billion, penalized by the decline in cereal volumes sold outside France.
France, on the other hand, can still pride itself on its excellent results in services. They should generate a comfortable surplus, just under 20 billion euros. While last year, the balance of services was supported by the surge – cyclical – in sea freight prices at the end of the Covid, this is no longer the case. Container prices have fallen. Tourism and financial services are driving the good performance at the start of the year.
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