While the counting of votes in the presidential election is still ongoing in the USA and Donald Trump has now won the swing state of Arizona, the future commander-in-chief is already working on a plan to end the war in Ukraine.
The Wall Street Journal reports, citing allies, that Trump has not yet approved a peace plan to bring Kremlin boss Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyj to the table. His advisors are said to have already made suggestions to him. How he will deal with this has not yet been decided.
However, everything supposedly points to a freeze in the war, which would mean that Russia would retain around 20 percent of Ukrainian territory. In addition, Ukraine will probably be forced to suspend its efforts to join NATO.
Three people close to Trump have mentioned the idea that Ukraine would have to promise not to join the defense alliance for at least 20 years. In return, it would receive enough weapons from the United States to deter Russia from a future attack.
Musk promises Starlink use
A phone call between Trump and Ukraine’s President Zelensky could provide an indication of further US support for Ukraine. Elon Musk is said to have intervened and assured that he would continue to make the Starlink satellite system available to Ukraine.
After the war has been frozen, according to plans from the Trump camp, an 800 mile – almost 1,300 kilometer – long demilitarized zone will be created as a buffer, which Vice Presidential candidate J. D. Vance had already announced. It is still unclear who will monitor compliance with the rules, but according to one of the advisors, the peacekeepers will neither consist of US soldiers nor of international organizations co-founded by the US, such as the UN.
Although Washington could hold training courses and provide further support, the Europeans would be on their own on the ground. “We will not send American men and women to ensure peace in Ukraine,” a member of the Trump team is quoted as saying: “And we will not pay for it. Let the Poles, Germans, British and French do it.”
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**Interview with Dr. Elena Novak – Political Analyst & Eastern European Affairs Expert**
**Interviewer:** Thank you for joining us today, Dr. Novak. With the recent developments regarding Donald Trump’s potential plans for Ukraine after winning Arizona, what key takeaways do you see from these reports?
**Dr. Novak:** Thank you for having me. One of the most significant takeaways is the shift in the U.S. approach to Ukraine under a potential Trump administration. The talk of a peace plan that includes a freeze of the war, where Russia retains around 20% of Ukrainian territory, represents a considerable departure from the previous U.S. stance of full support for Ukraine’s sovereignty.
**Interviewer:** The idea of Ukraine promising not to join NATO for at least 20 years is a notable aspect of the proposed plan. What implications does that have for Ukraine and the broader European security landscape?
**Dr. Novak:** That would be a major concession for Ukraine and could drastically change its security dynamics. By delaying NATO membership, Ukraine may find itself in a vulnerable position, relying heavily on Western support without the full security guarantees that NATO membership entails. It could also embolden Russia, seeing it as a victory in their goal to keep Ukraine out of Western military alliances.
**Interviewer:** Another piece of information mentioned is Elon Musk’s promise to continue supporting Ukraine with the Starlink satellite system. How crucial is this for Ukraine in the context of ongoing military operations?
**Dr. Novak:** The Starlink system has been vital for Ukraine, especially in maintaining communication and coordinating efforts on the battlefield. As military operations evolve, having reliable, secure communications is crucial for any force’s effectiveness. Musk’s continued support could significantly influence Ukraine’s operational capabilities in the near future.
**Interviewer:** A demilitarized zone extending nearly 800 miles could create a buffer between Russian and Ukrainian forces. What challenges do you foresee in implementing such a plan?
**Dr. Novak:** Establishing a demilitarized zone is fraught with challenges. One significant concern is the trust between the parties involved. Enforcement and compliance would be tricky, especially if there’s no direct U.S. military presence to oversee the process. It’s critical that a neutral party is identified to monitor the zone, but as reports suggest, U.S. forces or entities like the UN are off the table, which complicates matters further.
**Interviewer:** Lastly, with Trump’s team suggesting that Europe must take on more responsibility, what should European countries prepare for if this plan comes to fruition?
**Dr. Novak:** European countries will need to bolster their own defense mechanisms and strategies, as the burden of maintaining peace and security in Eastern Europe could fall more heavily on them. This means increased military readiness and possibly more robust defenses against potential future aggressions from Russia. It’s a call for Europe to step up, which could also lead to a reevaluation of their military alliances and commitments.
**Interviewer:** Thank you, Dr. Novak, for sharing your insights on this evolving situation. We’ll be watching closely as this story develops.
**Dr. Novak:** Thank you for having me. It’s essential we stay informed as these geopolitical dynamics continue to unfold.
