After having hit manufacturers and businesses hard, fueling price increases and cutting household purchasing power, the shock wave of the energy crisis on the French economy continues to be felt. . Under the effect of the surge in gas, oil and raw materials, the French trade deficit, which had come close to 85 billion euros in 2021, almost doubled in 2022. It reached 164 billion euros, according to the figures published Tuesday, January 7 by the Ministry for Europe and Foreign Affairs, the worst result since the post-war period.
The “price” effect indeed led to a 29% increase in imports in value, while exports, less subject to the impact of energy, grew at the same time by only 18%. “In 2022, we were faced with an exceptional situationexplains Olivier Becht, Minister Delegate for Foreign Trade, Attractiveness and French People Abroad. We had to import electricity to compensate for the fact that many nuclear reactors were under maintenance, details the minister. And the shock [de la guerre] in Ukraine produced a surge in gas and oil prices, which may have seen their prices increase two or three times. »
“In the end, more than 80% of the worsening of the deficit is explained by the increase in the energy bill”, explains the Minister. This rose from 45 billion euros in 2021 to 115 billion in 2022. To this price impact is added the weakness of the euro against the dollar: the single currency lost 11% in 2022 against the greenback . “We export cheaper, and energy denominated in dollars is all the more expensive”adds one in the entourage of Mr. Becht.
“Structural part”
For once, “the situation is not specific to France”, and its historical Achilles heel, namely its low competitiveness, recalls Charlotte de Montpellier, economist at ING. Germany, which is rather a good student for exports in Europe, achieved a surplus of 76 billion euros in 2022, down 56% compared to the previous year, according to figures published on Thursday 2 February, by the German Federal Statistical Office.
But the surge in energy does not explain everything. The impact of the Covid-19 crisis, shortages of strategic materials or components such as semiconductors, as well as supply difficulties, still felt in 2022, have prevented certain sectors, which usually perform well exports, to regain their pre-crisis levels. This is particularly the case for aeronautics and automobiles, whose exports have not yet returned to the level of 2019.
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