“Since February, the upward trend has accelerated markedly with an average monthly increase of 45%,” said Thierry Millon, research director at Altares.
Business failures are multiplying in France and increasing by almost 50% in the first quarter of 2022 compared to the first quarter of 2020, approaching pre-COVID crisis levels, according to a study by Altares published on Monday.
“Since February, the upward trend has accelerated markedly with an average monthly increase of 45%,” said Thierry Millon, director of studies at Altares, as the number of failures began to rise following the confinement periods. .
The phenomenon first affects small businesses and in particular the youngest, which have liquidation rates identical to 2019, details the study. In restaurants and retail, the number of defaults doubled over one year.
In the construction sector, insolvencies are increasing less rapidly (+24% over one year), especially for structural work companies (+13%). Real estate is one of the few more preserved activities. The number of defaults in the sector fell by 1%.
All regions of France are concerned, but the failures are concentrated in Hauts-de-France where the number of procedures doubled in the second quarter.
These figures confirm the trend revealed on Friday by the Banque de France. It indicated a 14.6% increase in business defaults over the last twelve months compared to last year over the same period.
However, “the business climate is not collapsing,” reassures Thierry Millon. “Inflation, soaring energy prices, disruptions in supply chains, the closure of certain markets are slowing growth, but the economy is holding up and companies are resisting,” he says.
However, “the specter of recession looms”, he comments, while the study suggests a total of 37,000 defaults for the year 2022. A number which would remain much lower than that of 2019, so the Banque de France recorded 50,000 failures that year.
Barring a new energy shock, the Banque de France is ruling out the possibility of a recession for the time being. The European Central Bank (ECB) plans to increase its interest rates to fight once morest inflation, but these remain “favorable” to the economy, had judged the governor of the Banque de France, François Villeroy de Galhau , Thursday.
