The import unit value index increased by 22.2% during the fourth quarter of 2021 compared to the same quarter of 2020. While the export unit value index recorded an increase of 23, 7% during the fourth quarter of 2021 compared to the corresponding quarter of the previous year. In other words, the global export unit values exceeded the global import unit values, which shows that the export dynamic had really picked up.
The foreign trade indices (ICE) increased year-on-year during the fourth quarter of 2021, according to the High Commission for Planning (HCP). The import unit value index increased by 22.2% during the fourth quarter of 2021 compared to the same quarter of 2020.
This development is mainly due to the increase in the unit values of “energy and lubricants” by 80.4%, “crude products of mineral origin” by 45.4%, “crude products of animal and by 30.2%, “food, beverages and tobacco” by 30.1%, “semi-finished products” by 18.0% and “finished consumer products” by 10.5%.
11.5% increase in the import unit value index compared to 2020
It should be noted that compared to 2020, the import unit value index increased by 11.5%. For its part, the export unit value index recorded an increase of 23.7% during the fourth quarter of 2021 compared to the corresponding quarter of the previous year.
This increase is mainly due to the increase in the unit values of “semi-finished products” by 81.7%, “energy and lubricants” by 49.9%, “crude products of mineral origin” by 39, 8%, “raw products of animal and plant origin” by 16.7% and “finished consumer products” by 12.3%.
The indices of the average values of “finished products of industrial equipment” and “finished products of agricultural equipment” fell by 2.5% and 6.5% respectively, thus mitigating the rise in the index. overall export unit values.
12.8% increase in the export unit value index compared to 2020
In short, compared to 2020, the export unit value index recorded an increase of 12.8%. In other words, global export unit values exceeded global import unit values. This shows that the export dynamic had really picked up at the end of the fourth quarter of last year.
Now, taking a closer look at the import side during the 3rd quarter of 2021, we notice that the import unit value index only increased by 14.2% compared to the same quarter of 2020, i.e. by less vigorously than in the 4th quarter of 2021. However, we witnessed, more or less, with less vigor here too, the same configuration as what happened in the 4th quarter.
The warning signs of inflation announced
Indeed, the increase in the import unit value index in the 3rd quarter of 2021 was also, mainly, driven by the increase in the unit values of “energy and lubricants”, which recorded an increase of 50.6 %, “products of mineral origin” by 28.5%, “raw products of animal and vegetable origin” which rose by 27.8% and “food, beverages and tobacco” by 18.4 %. At the same time, the unit values of “semi-finished products” and “finished consumer products” also recorded increases of 11.5% and 7.2% respectively.
The first lesson to be drawn from these rises in the prices of imported products is that the trend accelerated in the fourth quarter with a dizzying increase in “energy and lubricants” and “crude products of mineral”. In other words, imported oil and gas had already started to weigh heavily on the country’s bill, following the closure of the Maghreb-Europe Gas Pipeline (GME). However, ONEE had continued to export electricity.
And this is undoubtedly one of the main reasons for the rise in the index of export unit values of “energy and lubricants” by 49.9%. In any case, at the level of “food, drinks and tobacco”, concern was beginning to mount. Prices have, in fact, practically doubled between the 3rd and 4th quarters of 2021. Fortunately, during the same period, “finished consumer products” did not suffer the same increase. But their weak rise already heralded imported inflation.
Aziz Diouf / ECO Inspirations