The loss of dollars continued. The Central Bank for the ninth consecutive round had to sell USD 84 million to pay for energy imports and lost USD 56 million of the reserves that remained at USD 37,155 million. During that period, the outflow of dollars from reserves was USD 2,308 million, which gives a daily average of USD 256 million.
If Sergio Massa thinks that collecting USD 5,000 million in advance of exports solves the problem, reality will tell you no. At the current rate of sales, it would mean oxygen for less than 18 days and the goal is to reach next March when the settlement of the thick harvest begins.
Today the reserves are an equation that cannot be resolved with the mechanisms that the government has at its disposal. The logical question with a difficult answer is why the alternative dollars and the “blue” fell when reserves continue to fall and deposits in dollars continue to drip.
“It was a day of total apathy. The Single Free Exchange Market (MULC) at 1:30 p.m. had barely traded USD 10 million and at the close USD 200 million were traded, which is also very little, and they lost currency once more (USD 84 million). The problem is that the freezing of the MULC is still present and it is serious for the reserves”, said the financial analyst Leonardo Chialva.
“The positive thing is that there was a Latin American party with a lot of rise in Brazilian assets. Petrobras rose more than 5% and the EWZ (Brazilian stock and bond index) more than 3%. Silver is clearly entering the region as a result of the low valuations of the assets. And we are very attached to those movements. We see money entering Argentina and stocks and bonds rising in line with what is happening in the rest of the region. There is a feeling of greater risk in the world,” added Chialva.
Regarding the launch of the dual bonus, he said: “The highest volume of the day was due to some bills that are going to be exchanged for these titles that are adjusted for both inflation and devaluation. It is a binary bet that was used in the past. Caputo used it at a time of crisis in the previous government and then Alberto Fernández re-profiled it with the AF20. There is a lot of enthusiasm with this bond that made us lose the memory of the short term because it is usually an instrument that is issued in delicate circumstances and that generally in the adjustment or external shock, this type of bond, at least in the past, has been treated in quite favorable conditions. It’s a good point for the new minister issuing an instrument that has caught investors’ attention and sparked some enthusiasm. There is still a lot of expectation, but little concreteness,” he added.
The market response was the rise of all the bonds that can be exchanged for the dual ones that mature in June, July and September. It’s a way to kick debt a year ahead.
The bonds eligible for the exchange were the most sought following. The Lecer rose to 1.87% and the Ledes, 0.50%.
The dollars, due to the arrival of funds from abroad, had a quiet day. The bonds that are used to operate the financial dollars had rises of up to 2.4%, as was the case of the AL30D. The MEP had a slight increase of 16 cents to $278.94 and the cash with liquidation lost $1.02 (-0.3%) and closed at $283.76. Blue dropped $1 to $292.
The country risk before the rise of bonds in dollars fell 34 units (-1.4%) to 2,364 basic points.
The Exchange had a significant volume of operations of $1,787 million. The S&P Merval, the leading stock index, rose 2.46% in pesos and 2.7% in dollars. The best happened by YPF (+5,61%), Banco Macro (+4,65%) y Southern Gas Carrier (+4,59%).
The volume traded in ADR’s (certificates of holdings of shares listed on the New York Stock Exchange) fell by half. Barely $5,585 million were traded. YPF (+6,7%), Take off (+5,3%) y Southern Gas Carrier (+4.8%) were the most prominent.
For today it is expected that the inflow of funds from abroad will continue, but it is not an issue that depends on the new management but on the mood of the foreign markets that expect a mild recession and inflation that may soon begin to fall in the United States.
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