For Washington, the enlargement of the BRICS is a wake-up call

2023-08-30 00:22:41

The United States is seeking to adjust its strategy vis-à-vis emerging countries as the BRICS bloc grows, but few in Washington see this Chinese-backed group as a direct threat.

The BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa), decided last week at a summit to integrate six new members, a “historic enlargement” according to Chinese President Xi Jinping. The group seeks to gain greater influence to counterbalance that of the United States and the European Union.

As their leaders met in Johannesburg, US President Joe Biden vowed to advocate for reform of financing capabilities for emerging countries from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank, at a summit in come from the G20 in New Delhi. The United States also took care to insist on Russia’s withdrawal from the agreement on the export of Ukrainian cereals to emerging countries.

Publicly, Washington has minimized the enlargement of the BRICS, contenting itself with recalling that the countries are free to choose their partners. “We don’t think the BRICS are going to become some sort of geopolitical rival for the United States or anyone else,” said White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan.

Iran, a worrying addition

But, according to experts, this expansion shows that countries are looking for a new way to meet some of their economic or security needs. Emerging nations do not want “replacements” of the US-dominated system, analyzes Sarang Shidore of the Quincy Institute. “The message sent to Washington is that these disparities hurt and that our countries are not just complaining about them, […] they are taking steps to try to fill them,” he adds.

The United States is beginning to take these concerns “seriously”, according to Shidore. “But these are speeches, are they accompanied by checks? »

Washington’s most worrisome addition to the BRICS is Iran, which sees its membership as a way out of the international isolation imposed by the United States. But the new members don’t agree on everything. Among them are three Arab countries with difficult relations with Tehran (Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates).

The BRICS have always been a motley alliance that has not been spared from tensions. China has a complex relationship with India, which is getting closer to the United States while asserting its autonomy. Although the BRICS have, in a press release, supported reform of the United Nations Security Council, a major priority for India and Brazil, few expect this to be accepted by China and the Russia, who have a right of veto there.

Less homogeneous?

Henry Tugendhat, economist at the United States Institute for Peace, believes that Beijing, by wanting to expand the BRICS, has made this bloc even less homogeneous. For Colleen Cottle, a former CIA analyst who works at the think tank Atlantic Council, the expansion of the BRICS is “more a question of form” aimed at showing that emerging countries are allied, than concrete plans for collaboration.

Despite this, this enlargement shows a desire for change, according to her. The United States needs a more effective strategy than its insistence on working with “like-minded countries”, Colleen Cottle believes.

But an approach like Beijing’s, which invests heavily in infrastructure in emerging countries, is unlikely to work for Washington, she adds. “You have to have a coherent whole — a clear long-term vision and the funds to support it. »