2024-01-16 23:05:30
Michel Messager’s chronicle
In the field of space tourism, delays are commonplace and the latest one concerning the race to the Moon is no exception to the rule.
In addition to the failure of Peregrine, the lunar lander which was to mark the return of an American spacecraft to the Moon, several incidents and situations confirm this delay.
The Moon for 2025, 2026? The answer remains open to views of the current situation.
The race to the Moon has fallen behind schedule… – DepositPhotos.com
The space industry had made 2024 its goal of returning to the Moon.
As we wrote in our back-to-school column on 01/08/2024: “More than ever, the competition between the United States and China will make the news with the Artemis program on one side and the ILRS International Lunar Research Station program… preparations for Artemis continue with, as confirmed by NASA, in November 2024, three men (Reid Wiseman, Victor Glover and Jeremy Hansen) and one woman (Christina Koch) will complete a manned Earth-Moon journey round trip, the first of the 21st century. »
It must be noted that the space year 2024 begins with a failure: that of the Mission which was to, via the Vulcan rocket, bring the Peregrine lander to the lunar surface.
Peregrine’s failure
“From the start of the mission, it was clear that the risk of failure was 50%,” assures Peter Wurz, astrophysicist at the University of Bern.
The Peregrine lander was part of the first mission under the CLPS program (“Commercial Lunar Payload Services”), the new NASA system within which missions are entrusted to external service providers, in this case the Pittsburg company Astrobotic
Launched with the Vulcan Centaur rocket from United Launch Alliance, a joint venture between Boeing and Lockheed Martin, Peregrine should have arrived on the Moon with around a hundred kilos of scientific instruments, such as: the small Iris rover, the LETS radiation detector , which was to be installed on the surface of the Moon, the NSS neutron spectrometer, which aimed to search for clues to the presence of water ice on the lunar surface, etc.
While the mission had barely taken off on the night of January 7 to 8, 2024, only a few hours later, the American start-up Astrobotic first announced that its lander was facing numerous problems and “now had no chance to land softly on the Moon as planned. Then on Saturday, January 14, Astrobotic said on X: “Our latest estimate shows the spacecraft is heading toward Earth, where it will likely burn up in the atmosphere. »
The first of NASA’s CLPS programs, this failure does not seem to be as serious as one might think: “this failed test is something that was done in the laboratory before. Today, the difference is that it is visible to everyone, but the result is the same: we test, we fail, we learn, and we start once more” admits one of the Astrobotic experts. »
Same story from NASA for whom: “this failure in broad daylight will serve to learn and progress. Instead of only seeing the finished product, the audience also witnesses part of the process. »
It is clear that following the failure of Peregrine, and in recent months following those of the Russian, Japanese or Israeli missions: landing on the Moon is still a technical feat, which we tend to forget a little. .
NASA reaction: postponement of missions to the Moon for one year
A few hours later following observing the failure of Peregrine, NASA announced the postponement for almost a year of the next two missions of the Artemis program dedicated to the next return of the Americans to the Moon.
Direct consequences: the Artemis 2 mission, which was to circle the Moon with a crew of four astronauts, is postponed from the end of 2024 to September 2025 and Artemis 3, which will mark the return of humans to the lunar star, is postponed. also one year from 2025 to September 2026.
The reasons for these postponements
Certainly if the failure of the Peregrine lander played a role in this decision by NASA to postpone its missions to the Moon, it should be said that not only is it not the only cause and moreover not This decision did not have a preponderant character.
In fact and in our opinion, this is an “opportunity” for NASA which is beginning to notice the accumulation of delays due to more or less important causes.
If it is true that there are still multiple problems to be resolved, such as for example on the space suits or on the heat shield, which protects the Orion capsule, the real uncertainties lie at the level of Space X which was selected by NASA for the Artemis 2 and 3 missions.
Today, SpaceX’s concern is first and foremost to make its Starship fly. The first flight on Thursday April 20, 2023 exploded in flight shortly following takeoff and the second test flight of the Starship, which can be described as: “a successful failure” because many objectives were achieved, concluded. also by the destruction of the two floors.
For the moment, given the delays by Boeing, also involved in the project, and the uncertainties of SpaceX, it is impossible to know whether the new deadlines announced by NASA will be met or not.
Consequences on the race to the Moon
If it is true that China and the United States are fighting hard to conquer space and the Moon, Bill Nelson, NASA administrator thinks the US will win the race: “I’m not worried that China will land before us…I think China has a very aggressive plan. I think she’d like to land before us because it might give her a publicity boost. But the thing is, I don’t think she will.
I think it’s true that their date that they announced keeps moving forward. But more specifically, with our landing in September 2026, this will be the first landing.
»
These postponements undoubtedly do the business of Jeff Bezos and Blue Origin who can have more time to manufacture and develop their own Blue Moon moon landing system, developed with several partner companies (Lockheed Martin, Draper, Boeing, Astrobotic, Honeybee Robotics) and to which NASA has awarded the Artemis 5 and 6 missions.
This shows that even in space “the misfortune of one person can make the happiness of others” (Voltaire).
Michel Messager – DR
Michel MESSAGER is associate director of Consul Tours, a consulting company working for private and institutional clients in the tourism sectors.
He is a Founding Member of the European Institute of Space Tourism and the AFST (French Association of Tourism Seniors). He is the author of numerous articles on the subject as well as several books: “Space Tourism” published in 2009 in French documentation, “History of Space Tourism from 1950 to 2020” released in 2021, “Spatial Tourism and Ecology” in 2022 and “Space Tourism from 1950 to 2022” at Amazon. He is currently considered one of the specialists in the field.
He frequently speaks on this subject on radio and television, as well as through conferences in many countries, notably in Canada where he resides for a few months per year. In particular, he advises “new space” companies and investment funds on financial projects relating to Space Tourism.
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