2023-09-06 10:00:19
After several years where global food security has gradually improved, the last three years (2021-2022 and 2023) mark a new period of regression with an ever-increasing number of people suffering from hunger due to conflicts, increase in economic and social inequalities, extreme climatic events. The two years of the Covid pandemic have also aggravated the situation: observed shortages, linked to supply disruptions within agri-food sectors, the resurgence of inflation, particularly in food products, considerably affecting the most vulnerable populations.
Most recently, the war in Ukraine has seriously endangered grain supplies, especially wheat, the staple food for more than 35% of the world’s population. Africa, the Middle East and Asia are more than 50% dependent on wheat imports from Russia and Ukraine. The sharp drop in cereal supplies and the sharp increase in prices since the outbreak of the conflict raise fears of a further decline in food security in the months and years to come.
Feeding a population, a challenge complex of this century
A vital product, wheat invites itself every day to the table of billions of individuals. While its consumption is globalizing, its production is very unequally distributed on the planet. Climate and geostrategic changes are also a reminder of the fragility of an agricultural commodity which is harvested only once a year. When this wheat runs out and its price starts to soar, there is agitation and fear.
In his latest book entitled “wheat geopolitics”, Sébastien Abis, director of Club Demeter, the ecosystem of decision-makers in the agricultural, agro-industrial and agro-food sector, specifies that “feeding a growing population, in a context of scarcity of resources and the transformation of power relations, constitutes one of the most complex challenges of this century. Faced with these socio-demographic dynamics and these territorial disparities, the role of trade is growing and the strategies of the actors are asserting themselves with regard to wheat. To the challenges of its sustainable production are added those of transport and the investments necessary so that wheat harvests can be sufficiently mobile and accessible to follow the progression of demand”.
Safety program arab-african food
At the Arab and African level, an interregional program of different donors called “Arab-Africa Trade Bridges” (Aatb) was launched by the AfDB, for an amount of 1.5 billion dollars in order to respond to the problems of food insecurity in the Arab and African regions in the context of the global food security crisis.
The food security program is developed around four pillars, namely trade, investment, insurance and infrastructure. Furthermore, it incorporates a fifth element, namely capacity development and technical assistance, which serves as a cross-cutting theme and enabling factor.
Under the program, funded and unfunded financial transactions related to food security will be provided, as well as capacity development and technical assistance services.
The main objective of the short-term program is to meet the immediate food security needs of member countries, with particular emphasis on securing the resources necessary for a constant and reliable supply of essential food commodities. This objective also recognizes the urgency of meeting the immediate needs of populations facing food insecurity.
Furthermore, by attracting investment, upgrading infrastructure, optimizing value chains and fostering cooperation, the program aims to build resilient and sustainable food systems that ensure the availability, accessibility of nutritious foods for everyone. These measures will contribute to long-term food security and support the overall socio-economic development of the region.
Food prices are picking up on the rise
The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) indicates in its latest report that a 1.3% increase was recorded in food prices last July, compared to in June, this increase was the second and largest of the year. The FAO attributes this increase to the end of the agreement on grain exports via the Black Sea. Its price index nevertheless remains well below its level of a year ago (-11.8%).
It is the fear of many countries in Africa and the Middle East, which depend on Ukrainian cereals to feed their population, to see food prices go up. “Rising prices will be felt more acutely by people in developing countries,” also warned UN Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs in the Security Council, Martin Griffiths, adding that currently 362 million people in 69 countries need humanitarian aid. The forecasts “do so hover the risk of seeing millions of people affected by hunger, or worse”.
Other factors have driven prices higher globally, in particular yield concerns in some palm, soybean and rapeseed producing countries for rising prices of the corresponding oils.
Rice prices have also increased by +2.8% over one month
The FAO points to the measures of India, which provides 40% of world trade and banned, from July 21, the export of non-basmati white rice to protect its supply and contain the rise in prices on the domestic market. This decision “further amplified the pressure already exerted on prices by a tight seasonal supply and demand” from the Asian market, specifies the FAO. On the other hand, prices are cooling on other commodities: that of sugar fell for the second month in a row (-3.9%), the FAO cereal price index fell by 0.5% in one month due to larger corn harvests in Argentina and Brazil and “potentially higher than expected production” in the United States. “The wheat price index, meanwhile, rose for the first time in nine months due to uncertainty over Ukrainian wheat exports. The price indices for dairy products and meat fell slightly (-0.4% and -0.3% respectively).
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