Going to the supermarket has become, for many consumers, a torture for the budget. And unfortunately, the situation is not expected to change for the better in the short term. In its macroeconomic forecasts for the period 2023-2025, the Banque de France forecasts a peak in food inflation “towards the end of the second half of the year”. There won’t be any ” red month “, underlined François Villeroy de Galhau, the governor of the institution, at the microphone of France Inter. However, he admits that there is a period of high food prices which is very sensitive for our fellow citizens ».
A peak in food inflation by summer
Past this peak, food inflation will continue to rise, but more slowly: the Banque de France is indeed forecasting an easing in the price of agricultural inputs as well as in the international prices of agricultural raw materials. However, it is useless to dream, we do not expect a fall in food prices over the horizon of our projection [2025] “, warns Matthieu Lemoine, co-author of the study. You will have to get used to the expensive prices on the food shelves.
The horizon of 2% inflation
As for forecast headline inflation, it would stand at 5.4% in 2023 according to the harmonized consumer price index (an indicator that allows comparisons in Europe), instead of 6% previously forecast. Food prices are the main contributor to inflation, ahead of energy prices. Inflation would then fall sharply to 2.4% next year, then 1.9% in 2025. Falling below the 2% threshold is precisely the objective of the European Central Bank, which continues to increase its key rates in order to curb inflation.
