Experts suggest that there may be changes in the final phase of the election campaign, potentially influenced by the recent flood disaster. In the latest survey conducted by OGM head Wolfgang Bachmayer, the ÖVP trailed the FPÖ by just one percentage point, recording 25 percent compared to FPÖ’s 26 percent. The situation seems challenging for the smaller parties, which might face difficulties in entering the race. If they do not succeed, a possible scenario is a two-party coalition between the ÖVP and SPÖ, although the implications remain uncertain.
“In times of crisis, support tends to consolidate around the Chancellor,” Bachmayer told APA, indicating that this could favor the Chancellor’s party, the ÖVP, as well as the Greens. However, he cautioned that the data must be interpreted with care, especially since the survey took place amidst the floods. “Next week, the political agenda might shift,” he warned, emphasizing the need for caution in interpreting the results of the survey.
Poll: FPÖ Leads Over ÖVP and SPÖ
The ranking of the “top 3” parties—FPÖ, ÖVP, and SPÖ—remains the same in the survey published on September 19, according to Bachmayer. In the OGM survey, the SPÖ is positioned behind both FPÖ and ÖVP, standing at 21 percent. The Greens are at ten percent, while the NEOS are at nine percent.
Floods Bridge Gap Between ÖVP and FPÖ
“We cannot predict the outcome. The FPÖ still has a strong chance of winning, but the margin is smaller than before,” said political consultant Thomas Hofer in an interview with APA. However, Chancellor Karl Nehammer’s involvement in managing the flood crisis has allowed the ÖVP to gain some ground on the FPÖ, adding a degree of dynamism to their campaign. The official base of the ÖVP is reportedly “significantly more motivated than that of the SPÖ.”
No Harm Done to FPÖ
Hofer views the situation as detrimental to the FPÖ in terms of issue prioritization: “Before the floods, climate change was considerably less prioritized compared to migration,” he noted, referring to the FPÖ’s primary focus. While the FPÖ has not made any mistakes concerning the flood response, “Kickl was sidelined during the crisis management,” he explained. The party leader could not assert himself in the same manner as the Chancellor, lacking both a formal role and membership on the crisis team. “He was left to observe without any active involvement.” In contrast, SPÖ leader Andreas Babler was able to take center stage due to his role as mayor of Traiskirchen, particularly through his work with the fire brigade—”but not like Nehammer or Governor Johanna Mikl-Leitner of Lower Austria.” Kickl likely refrained from seeking attention “because he correctly anticipated such attempts would be perceived as insincere,” Bachmayer added.
According to Hofer, the Greens, whose key issue of climate protection has resurfaced due to the floods, might sway voters considering leaving for the SPÖ, NEOS, or the Beer Party.
No Major Shifts in Voter Groups
Pollster Peter Hajek foresees minimal effects from the floods, stating that since no candidate has made any significant errors, drastic shifts in voter groups are unlikely. In his latest survey before the storms, conducted on September 13, the ÖVP and SPÖ were at 25 and 21 percent respectively, with the FPÖ at 28 percent, slightly higher than OGM’s findings, and the Greens at eight percent, trailing just behind the NEOS at nine.
Negative Impact on Small Parties
All recent surveys indicate that the smaller parties (including those with potential to enter the National Council) have been struggling to surpass the four percent threshold. Particularly, the Beer Party, which experts believed had a strong chance of clearing this hurdle until late summer, has recently shown noticeable weakness. “The floods are pushing the smaller parties below the four percent threshold,” Bachmayer remarked.
Hajek echoed this sentiment, emphasizing that the natural disaster is likely to influence the lesser-known parties, which are now being “completely sidelined” in the discourse. He also pointed out that this decline was evident even before the floods, especially for the Beer Party, which has faced “real setbacks” for an extended period.
If neither the KPÖ nor BIER enter the National Council, it will affect the seat distribution among the other parties. Bachmayer noted that the smaller parties (in addition to KPÖ and BIER, the lists “KEINE” and “Madeleine Petrovic” are also running nationally) are expected to collect at least six to seven percent of the vote, which would subsequently make seats “cheaper” for the larger parties.
Narrow Majority Possible for ÖVP and SPÖ
The outcome could lead to a fairly secure joint seat majority for both the FPÖ and ÖVP, as well as a narrow majority for a coalition between the ÖVP and SPÖ. “With 45 or 46 percent, a majority of seats could be achieved,” stated the OGM head.
“That is the crucial point: suddenly a two-party coalition between the ÖVP and SPÖ appears feasible.” Hofer agrees with this perspective: “It is quite probable that a three-party coalition may not be necessary apart from the FPÖ.”
This scenario would particularly benefit the ÖVP in terms of its bargaining leverage post-election, according to Bachmayer. It would also eliminate the need to consider a three-party coalition. Bachmayer believes it is unlikely any of the smaller parties would succeed in crossing the four percent threshold. “That will be very, very challenging.”
Bachmayer places little faith in the ÖVP’s declaration that it will not form a coalition with the FPÖ under Kickl. The expert referred to Lower Austria, where the ÖVP is currently collaborating with the FPÖ. “It is not a problem that they are deviating from their absolute commitment.” He added that a coalition between the ÖVP and FPÖ would be “more compatible” content-wise than one between the ÖVP and SPÖ.
Hofer mentioned that climate change has once again risen to prominence “due to the extreme event of the flood.” However, it is “not a game changer” like the refugee influx in 2015. He sees inflation and living costs as particularly significant concerns in the election campaign, “and they remain topical.” Following the foiled terrorist attack at the Taylor Swift concert and the discourse surrounding social welfare, other issues have also gained attention, providing the FPÖ with “another opportunity” to address migration-related topics.
Floods Shift the Election Campaign
The flood acted as a pivotal moment in the election campaign. Previously, climate change had received less attention as it was viewed more negatively compared to 2019, Hofer noted, particularly referencing the protests by the “last generation” and their sticker campaigns. These campaigns were seen as highly polarizing, even among Green voters. “The Greens faced considerable challenges due to this.” The flood has transformed the narrative into a “very unifying, albeit tragic” issue, making the debate “less contentious” once again.
Other topics, such as healthcare, on which the SPÖ heavily relied (for instance, advocating for a specialist doctor guarantee within 14 days), are now debated less controversially, “since everyone supports enhancing care.”
(Source: APA)
Austria’s Political Landscape: Polls, Floods, and Election Dynamics
According to experts, there could be some movement in the final stretch of the election campaign, and the flood disaster could also have some influence. In the most recent survey by OGM boss Wolfgang Bachmayer, the ÖVP was only just behind the FPÖ (26) with 25 percent. Things currently seem difficult for the “small” lists. If they fail to get in, a two-party coalition with the ÖVP and SPÖ could possibly work out mathematically. Of course, the effects are difficult to estimate.
“In times of crisis, the ranks close behind the Chancellor,” Bachmayer told APA – this could benefit the Chancellor’s party, the ÖVP, but possibly also the Greens. Of course, the pollster stressed that the data must be treated with caution: the survey was conducted precisely during the floods. “There may be something else on the political agenda next week,” he warned, urging caution in interpreting the survey results.
Poll: FPÖ Ahead of ÖVP and SPÖ
The order of the “top 3” – FPÖ, ÖVP, SPÖ – remains unchanged in his survey published on September 19, says Bachmayer. According to the OGM survey, the SPÖ is behind the FPÖ and ÖVP at 21 percent. The Greens are at ten percent and the NEOS at nine percent.
Floods Bring ÖVP Closer to FPÖ
“We don’t know how it will end. The FPÖ still has a great chance of crossing the finish line first, but it’s closer than before,” said political consultant Thomas Hofer in an interview with APA. However, the presence of ÖVP leader and Chancellor Karl Nehammer in the crisis management of the flood disaster has given the ÖVP the opportunity to move closer to the FPÖ and “bring some more dynamism.” The turquoise party’s official base is also “significantly more motivated than that of the SPÖ.”
No Damage for FPÖ
Hofer sees this as damage to the FPÖ in that the issue setting is affected: “Until the floods, the climate issue was ranked significantly lower behind migration,” the expert said, referring to the blue core issue.
The FPÖ made no mistakes in the flood disaster, “but (FPÖ leader Herbert, note) Kickl was relegated to the bench during the flood crisis management period.” The party chairman could not position himself in the same way as the Chancellor: “He does not have the function, nor is he on the crisis team. He was condemned to watch the front row with his feet free.” SPÖ leader Andreas Babler, on the other hand, was able to put himself in the spotlight due to his position as mayor of Traiskirchen, he said, referring to his work with the fire brigade – “but not like Nehammer or Lower Austria’s governor Johanna Mikl-Leitner.” Kickl probably held back on staging “because he correctly suspected that it would be seen as a disguise and a masquerade,” Bachmayer added.
According to Hofer, the Greens, whose core issue of climate protection has once again come into focus following the flood disaster, could possibly change the minds of voters willing to leave the party – “towards the SPÖ, NEOS, Beer Party”.
No Massive Shifts in Voter Groups
Opinion researcher Peter Hajek expects the effects of the floods to be rather minor. Because none of the candidates made any mistakes, massive shifts in voting groups are therefore not to be expected. In his most recent survey – before the storms – on September 13, the ÖVP and SPÖ were also at 25 and 21 percent respectively, the FPÖ at 28, slightly higher than OGM, and the Greens at eight percent, just behind the NEOS at nine.
Negative Effects on Small Parties
What the latest surveys all have in common is that the “small” lists (including those with potential chances of entering the National Council) have recently been reported to be below the four percent hurdle. The Beer Party in particular, which experts said had a good chance of clearing this hurdle until late summer, has recently been noticeably weaker. “The flood is washing the small parties below the four percent hurdle,” said Bachmayer.
Hajek also stressed that the natural disaster would most likely have an impact on the back rows, with the smaller lists now being “completely pushed out” of the debate. At the same time, he pointed out that this weakness had already been seen before the floods, with the Beer Party in particular having experienced “real setbacks” for some time.
Narrow Majority Possible for ÖVP and SPÖ
The result would be that, in addition to the fairly secure joint majority of seats for the FPÖ and ÖVP, there would also be a narrow majority of seats for a coalition between the ÖVP and SPÖ. “With 45 or 46 percent, a majority of seats could be achieved,” said the OGM boss.
“That is the crucial point: suddenly a two-party coalition between the ÖVP and the SPÖ seems possible.” Hofer sees it similarly: “It is quite likely that a three-party coalition is not necessarily needed apart from the FPÖ.”
This would mean advantages for the ÖVP in particular in terms of its negotiating position after the election, says Bachmayer. It would also avoid having to think about a three-party coalition. Bachmayer thinks it is rather unlikely that one of the “small” parties will manage to get over the four percent hurdle. “That will be very, very difficult.”
Bachmayer does not put too much stock in the ÖVP’s announcement that it will not form a coalition with the FPÖ under Kickl. The expert pointed to Lower Austria, for example, where the ÖVP is also working with the FPÖ. “It is not a problem that we are deviating from the absolute promise.” In terms of content, a coalition between the ÖVP and the FPÖ would be “more compatible” than one between the ÖVP and the SPÖ, he said.
According to Hofer, the topic of climate change has come to the fore again “with the extreme event of the flood.” However, it is “not a game changer” like the refugee movements in 2015. Hofer sees the topics of inflation and affordability of living as being very prominent in the election campaign, “and they are still there”. After the prevented terrorist attack on the Taylor Swift concert and the debate about social welfare, other problem areas were also in the foreground, which gave the FPÖ “another chance” to “score points” on the issue of migration.
Floods Turn the Election Campaign Around
The flood, however, was a turning point in the election campaign. Previously, the issue of climate change had been less of a focus because, in contrast to 2019, it had been viewed less positively, Hofer said, referring to the debate surrounding protests by the “last generation” and their sticker campaigns. The latter were perceived as very polarizing even among the Green voters. “The Greens had a very hard time with that.” The flood changed this as a “very unifying, if very sad” issue. Now the debate is “less sensitive” again.
Other topics, such as health care, which the SPÖ relied heavily on (for example with the demand for a specialist doctor guarantee within 14 days), were discussed less controversially, “because everyone is in favor of improving care.”
(Source: APA)
