Numerous forecasts suggest that the number of global environmental disasters and extreme events will continue to increase in the future. As is so often the case, the main reason for this is ongoing global warming. Measures taken once morest extreme droughts or floods are therefore all the more important. Learning from earlier events and arming oneself for more violent situations in good time is essential – as international researchers point out in one current study in the journal “Nature”.
Austria as a positive example
Effective risk management has already been achieved in Austria, for example. In the extensive international study by the team at Heidi Kreibich The researchers from the German Research Center for Geosciences in Potsdam cite the Danube floods of 2002 and 2013 as successful examples.
Although the amount of precipitation in 2013 exceeded that of 2002 and the risk of extreme flooding was generally higher, Austrians got off much lighter in 2013. Compared to the flood of 2002, the amount of damage nine years later was significantly lower.
According to one, this becomes particularly clear flood report the Vienna University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (BOKU) using the example of the Machland. In 2002, damage of around 500 million euros was recorded there. In 2013, however, there were only around 25 million.
exception instead of rule
According to the international study, the fact that the heavier rainfall in 2013 caused less damage around the Danube is anything but the norm. Kreibich’s team examined 45 pairs of floods and droughts around the world. The researchers concentrated on places where extreme water levels due to flooding or droughts were measured twice at intervals of around 16 years on average.
The international research team calculated how the flood protection measures taken following the first event or to adapt to drought affected the second extreme event. In many places where the second event was as severe as the first, the effects of the floods and droughts were significantly lessened.
However, the situation was different in those places where the second event was significantly stronger than the first. With its successful risk management on the Danube, Austria is more the exception than the rule – out of the 45 pairs examined, there were only two in which the consequences were less severe the second time, although the second event resulted in more pronounced drought or precipitation phases .
Adaptation to the usual
The international researchers prove that risk management usually works well in extreme events of comparable magnitude. This shows that society often only adapts to what it knows.
On the other hand, it is correspondingly more difficult to react to situations that go beyond what is known and are a bit more extreme. The hydrologist involved in the study Gunter Bloeschl from the Technical University of Vienna (TU) explains to science.ORF.at: “From a political point of view, it is of course more difficult to address a potential but unprecedented danger and to take appropriate measures.” The associated financial expenditures are for theoretical events often difficult to justify and often meet with opposition from the public.
risk taken seriously
According to Bloeschl, the fact that the damage to the Danube in 2013 was relatively minor can be attributed to the measures taken between 2002 and 2013. He explains: “Risk management in Austria works very well overall.” This does not mean that there will be no more environmental disasters in the future, which pose challenges for those responsible, but: “The topic is taken very seriously in Austria by everyone involved. “
Infrastructure alone is not enough
Specifically, following the flood in 2002, for example, mobile dams were built in the Wachau. According to Bloeschl, successful risk management also includes other areas. He explains: “In addition to the right infrastructure, there are other measures that are just as important – such as legal and administrative adjustments or improving forecasts.” There was also a lot of progress in Austria in these areas following the floods in 2002.
The measures and improvements implemented in this country did not cost a lot, but according to Blöschl they paid off many times over in 2013 at the latest. However, one should not rest on one’s laurels. Blöschl: “It is anything but impossible that we will be confronted with more extreme water levels in the future.” Further improvements in risk management are therefore also indispensable in Austria.
Better risk communication
Blöschl: “It’s always very tricky to talk regarding extreme events in the future without triggering a panic.” However, simply belittling or dismissing improbable but possible scenarios should be avoided. Blöschl therefore sees politics, but also the media, as having a duty to further improve risk communication both globally and in Austria.
According to Blöschl, more might also be done in terms of infrastructure and the legal framework. If the worst comes to the worst, there should be enough financial resources to act quickly and effectively – regardless of whether it’s extreme flooding or drought phases. The latter will probably also occur more frequently in Austria in the future.
Even with appropriate measures, however, there remains a certain residual risk that extreme events will be even more severe than expected. It is therefore also necessary to take this danger into account during spatial planning and possibly not to settle risk areas. Only with a well-functioning and constantly adapted risk management can a “super meltdown” be prevented, even in extreme cases, according to Blöschl.
