Russia manages to defeat Ukraine militarily. Logically, the Russian president will then have 2 political options: install puppet governments in the independent republics or purely and simply annex the Donbass provinces and attach them to Russia, as he did with Crimea. ” In this last casespecifies Julien Pomarède, the Russians will also try to continue their operations towards Odessa as far as the Moldavian border in order to attach the coast of the Sea of Azov there. ” Either way, however, Russia will need to mobilize significant military resources to retain power. Because it will in all likelihood oppose a strong resistance of long duration similar to a guerrilla. The victory would be military but peace would certainly not reign in Ukraine.
Realistic?
Absolutely, confirms Julien Pomarède, political science researcher at the ULB. ” Everything can be decided between now and autumn. The next few months will be decisive. Ukrainian forces have just ceded Severodonetsk, worn down by Russian firepower and lack of arms supply”. A strategic retreat, a setback for kyiv which allows Vladimir Putin to move forward with his plan for the total reconquest of the Donbass but which does not call into question the Ukrainian defensive strategy.