2023-12-27 14:08:14
This article was originally published in English
From solar energy to electric mobility, this study offers five reasons to hope for the climate.
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With emissions continuing to rise and natural disasters wreaking havoc across the globe, it’s no wonder climate concern is at an all-time high.
But hope is not lost. A new study claims that five major changes have taken place since the signing of the Paris agreement in 2015.
While terms like “decarbonization” and “net zero” have become part of everyday language, it wasn’t always this way. By recognizing how far we’ve come over the past decade, we can see where we’re making progress – and where we’re not doing enough.
From solar deployment to electric mobility, here are five reasons we’re moving in the right direction, according to thestudy from the NewClimate Institute, a German non-profit organization.
1. Climate change talk has become mainstream
Ten years ago, only part of society was truly aware and concerned regarding climate change.
This situation has changed radically in recent years. In 2014, a BBC survey of 17 countries around the world showed that 40% of respondents saw climate change as a serious problem. In 2020, this figure increased to 60%.
The broader Peoples Climate Vote survey, conducted in 2021 by the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) and the University of Oxford in 50 countries, showed an even clearer shift.
In Eastern Europe and Central Asia, 85% of respondents consider climate change a global emergency. 72% of Western Europeans and North Americans agree, as do 64% of people in the Arab States, 63% of people in Latin America, the Caribbean and Asia-Pacific, and 61% of the inhabitants of sub-Saharan Africa.
The issue is now at the heart of public and political discourse around the world. The increasing media coverage of climate issues, as well as their integration into theeducationallowed citizens to acquire knowledge regarding their causes and consequences.
In parts of the world already feeling the effects of climate change, the learning curve has been much steeper.
But as climate change protests and social movements gain momentum, pressure mounts on governments and businesses to act.
And when they fail, advances in the science of attribution (which defines the links between climate change and extreme weather) make it possible to hold them accountable in court through climate litigation. This year alone, young Portuguesea British environmental charity and Swedish activist, Greta Thunberg, have sued their country.
2. Most countries are aiming for net zero – and temperature rise forecasts are lower
From governments to big businesses, “net zero” goals are omnipresent. But in 2015, only one country – Bhutan – had set such a target.
Today, more than 90 countries, representing nearly 80% of global emissions, have joined.
In the past, policy debate has focused on incremental emissions reductions and trade-offs across sectors and countries, notes the NewClimate Institute. But a fully decarbonized economy is today a dominant vision, including in the countries of the South.
Although we still have a long way to go to achieve these reductions and meet the 1.5°C limit, the projected emissions curve has flattened.
In 2015, the temperature was expected to increase by 3.6 to 3.9°C by 2100. Today, this projection has been reduced to 2.7°C.
3. Investors and businesses feel pressure to act on climate
Before the Paris Agreement, climate change was a niche topic among investors and businesses. Now there is pressure on them to recognize that this is a serious threat.
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Many companies report and disclose their climate impact – some are even legally required to do so. As they seek to improve their credentials, low-carbon opportunities are gaining popularity and green innovations are driving changes to traditional business models.
The demand for sustainable investments is increasing. In 2021, 84% of global asset owners reported implementing or evaluating sustainable investment strategies, up from around 53% three years earlier, according to PwC.
While the transition towards abandoning fossil fuels was sealed at COP28 this month, the risk of stranded assets is pushing investors to turn away from polluting energy sources and towards renewable energy.
As citizens and governments become more aware of greenwashing campaigns, it is increasingly difficult for companies to fool us. For those attempting to do so, climate-related litigation represents a growing risk.
4. Renewable energy is now cheaper than fossil fuels
In the past, renewable energy might not compete with fossil fuels on cost or supply. All this has changed in recent years.
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Power systems are shifting to flexible, decentralized models that include wind power, solar and hydroelectric.
The speed of this transition has exceeded expectations, with the cost of solar power, onshore wind power and offshore wind power falling by 60% to 90% over the past decade, according to the IPCC . New renewable energies are now cheaper than new fossil fuels in 90% of the world.
For every dollar (0.91 euro) invested in fossil fuels, 1.70 dollars (1.55 euro) is now devoted to clean energy. Five years ago, this ratio was 1:1, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).
5. The electrification of buildings and transport is progressing rapidly
Of the electric cars to heat pumps, electrification has become a central element of the global decarbonization strategy.
Combustion engine cars are being phased out in several countries and regions, including the European Economic Area (EEA), Canada, Chile and several US states – a policy that would have been inconceivable a decade ago.
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EV charging points, affordability and even the number of cars on the roads still need to be improved. But advances in battery storage are starting to remove some of these obstacles. Over the past ten years, the batteries lithium-ion have become commercially viable, their cost having fallen by 80%.
THE heat pumps contribute to the decarbonisation of our homes, thanks to financial incentives now available in more than 30 countries which represent more than 70% of current global heating demand. Sales in Europe increased by 38% between 2013 and 2022. heat pumps are also increasingly tested in industrial environments.
Innovation and investment also help decarbonize “hard to reduce” sectors like shipping and heavy industry. Steel with hydrogenelectric ships and low-carbon fuels are among the main developments.
Despite all this progress, “the climate crisis itself is accelerating more and more”, say the authors of the study. It is therefore urgent to accelerate the momentum of these positive developments.
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