2024-04-02 17:15:25
By Anne de Guigné
Published 3 hours ago, Updated 12 minutes ago
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The American rating agency believes that the objectives stated by the government are “increasingly out of reach” but the credit rating granted to France should not fall.
The Fitch rating agency delivered a bittersweet comment this Tuesday on the difficult French budgetary situation. Unlike Standard & Poor’s and Moody’s, it downgraded the French sovereign rating last year. “ The latest budget data confirms our decision to downgrade France’s credit rating in April 2023, given the importance of budget deficits and the debt burden », welcome the analysts.
They take the opportunity to provide some clarification on the content of their next verdict, expected by the end of the month. “However, any further negative rating action would be contingent on a further significant worsening of public debt, which we consider unlikely, as reflected in the stable outlook,” writes the agency.
On Fitch’s side, it is therefore not a deterioration of its rating, but a possible downgrading of its outlook that Paris seems to have to fear. The agency puts forward some arguments in this direction.« France’s public debt level is the second highest among sovereigns in the “AA” category and we expect it to gradually increase to reach almost 113% of GDP by the end of 2025, i.e. more double the median predicted for the “AA” category, which is 51.3% »specifies its press release.
On the same day as Fitch, April 26, Moody’s will also deliver its verdict on France. Followed, a month later, by Standard & Poor’s. Their judgment might be more severe.
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